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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techreports who wrote (35981)	12/5/2000 5:06:49 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

tr, << long term investor and try to instill your views of LTBH on others >> This thread discusses a LTBH investing strategy, and that is this threads focus. << The fact remains...Yahoo, Intel, Dell, ect.. >> One Godzilla, one Gorilla, and one Prince. << btw, the 2nd biggest day on the NASDAQ was in March or was it April. Anyway, it was the 2nd biggest day ever, yet ended up going lower.>> The index (or market) is up. The index (or market) is down. The NASDAQ is more up and down than the S&P 500 or the DJII. A chart of same (or all), viewed over any short period of time looks like a sawtooth, but over any 5 year period is a nice even diagonal line ... UP! Now while past performance is no guarentee of ... Ya Da Ya Da. - Eric -

To: techreports who wrote (35981)	12/5/2000 5:44:30 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Bruce, I know you're a long term investor and try to instill your views of LTBH on others, but this is by no means the end to this bear market. We were due for a rally and if a company like Intel comes out and reports bad earnings then we'll be going back down to 2550 in no time. I guess we'll see. It's not too difficult to connect all the dots in terms of Micron Electronics, Apple, Gateway, etc... showing us that the PC market is experiencing slowing growth. Obviously the share prices of Dell and Intel have some of this built into their shares prices already. It's no secret anymore that PC growth and the economy is slowing. Does that mean we go back down to 2550 if Intel makes a comment about their quarter? The CEO mentioned yesterday they were on track for record earnings, but the quarter wouldn't be like previous December quarters in the last few years. We already knew that. Maybe the earnings and revenues won't make anyone spin cartwheels, but I don't think they will be 'bad earnings' as you state. Will the EPS be more than the year ago period? will the revenues be more than the year ago period? We'll know soon. If I'm guilty for 'instilling' anything on others, I believe in the effects of long term compounding. If you know of a more risk averse way to engage in the gorilla game (or non technology stocks) over the years, I would imagine we'd be all ears. My memory is quite sharp on the corporate earnings environment through the two slow downs in the early 90's. The fear, the slowdown, the FUD, the uncertainty, the endless stream of economists and crystal ball readers toted out and put on their pedestals to speak. Same thing this time around. I simply remained invested through it all. Plenty of companies continued to grow and increase their earnings/revenues. I would imagine I will continue to do the same through this slow down. Not to worry. I read Fleckenstein every day here at SI. I'm sure he'll have comments on Xilinx, Apple, LSI Logic..... I fully expect continued revisions in estimates from companies as the slow down continues. That's part of the process. Likewise, when the economy turns in the 'other' direction, the earnings revisions are made in the other direction. Eventually the market will discount the effect of the ease in interest rates that will come next year for the business climate in the future. The bond market has priced it in. Oil hit a 4 month low today dropping below $30 a barrel. OPEC (here in Vienna) has targeted the $22 to $28 range for full year 2001. It's sitting at $29 and change today. The ARM index was similar to what it was before a rally in 1998 and 1996 lows. Between that and Greenspan's words today, a lot of things came together to perhaps alter sentiment enough that at least the downward spiral has stopped. However, follow through will be determined one way or another over the next ten days. The fact remains...Yahoo, Intel, Dell, ect.. These companies are ganna go through some hard times over the next few quarters till revenues start to grow again. A lot of companies will go through slower growth times. Why do you think the market has been adjusting the valuations over the past few months? Intel from $75 to the mid $30's. Dell below $20. Yahoo! down from $200+, $100+ and around $37 - $45. btw, the 2nd biggest day on the NASDAQ was in March or was it April. Anyway, it was the 2nd biggest day ever, yet ended up going lower.. Obviously, we need follow through in the next 10 days. All we can do is watch those 10 days go by. If you are able to time all of that on a consistent basis to be in and out at the proper times and make the best use of your capital - more power to you. I remain a tortoise. BB John Murphy just ran the chart on Qualcomm and said why it's one of his favorite stocks in the technology sector right now. Broke the downtrend line today on heavy volume following a basing period. How's that for Stevie Wonder chart reading 101?