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Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernie Goldberg who wrote (946)	12/6/2000 8:13:36 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

Hi Bernie, I've not yet modeled UOPIX on a monthly basis. With such a tight string on this YoYo, it would be hard to leave it alone for a month at a time! It's probably the best Investment Toy I've played with yet! :-) I do remember modeling a very long slow steady decline where one bought all the way to zero cash reserve. I don't remember how many "periods" that amounted to, but the percentage drop was around the 50% mark when starting with 50% cash and 10% Buy SAFE. No sell periods were used in this simulation. It would appear that UOPIX will continue to offer the AIM user plenty of LIFO gains in the future. I don't mind waiting for my first AIM sell point (around $70+, I believe) as there's no hurry for that account to do anything in particular. Should UOPIX rise to that price, even without selling any shares, the account will be worth more than twice as much as it was when we started it. This means that any dollars put into the cash reserve at that point will be VERY profitable ones. (yesterday UOPIX added over $7,400 to the account's net worth; an account that only started with a total value of $30,000 - with about half in cash) Some may want to have some "trading cash" on hand before their AIM accounts recover. The best place to gain it would be from an outside source as an addition to their account. That comes without breaking any Lichello rules. If Great Aunt Nellie sends us a fat holiday check in her card, maybe the best use for it would be to add to our UOPIX position! Mr. Lichello only cautioned us about additions when the addition was substantially larger than the position itself. I think he mentioned something about killing it with kindness. Making additions to an existing AIM account in the form of CASH makes no change to Portfolio Control. Once added, if AIM is begging for us to spend it, AIM's usual rules would apply. I think this is what I would recommend. The WHEN is an arbitrary decision. If one is using a software like Newport and graphic history is important, then one can go back to the very first historical date and add the Cash in that period. Then the history graph makes it look like it was there all along. As long as there's no accumulated interest on that money, this should not affect the P&L statement adversely. The other choice is to add the cash in the current period. This makes the historical bar graphs in Newport somewhat ambiguous as just when the account nears a bottom there's a big jump in total value. Thanks for your council again on this issue. That award was given sincerely to you by all that attended the AIM 2000 meeting. BTW, your Millennium POST Secret Award finally went in the Snail Mail yesterday. Keep a lookout for it. We wouldn't want any Secret Decoder Rings falling into enemy hands! Sorry for the delay. Best regards, Tom 5°F overnight, 7°F now gathering clouds B.P. 30.04 and falling