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To: Second_Titan who wrote (80796)	12/5/2000 6:41:41 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Apple warns; Xmas Mall "traffic" down 14-17%.... CNBC posted the early Mall Traffic stats - down a shocking 14-17%. But, that really should not be a shock because everyone from Home Depot, to Wal Mart to the major retailers have allready guided lower. Gateway bombed, Best Buy - the ultimate middle America 1st Stop Xmas Shop imploded, Apple warns tonight after market... Xmas is going to be - berry, berry un-merry... This is most definitely "trade the traders" and not the fundamentals - because this market is freekin nuts ! JQP - made a comment about ignoring all this "gloom & doom" (read reality) I've been spreading here and that he saw that computer sales were strong etc...and he had no fears... "Q" - what are you smoking ? Whose computer sales are strong ? Gateway allready collapsed, CPQ down, Dell down and now APPLE just drops a bomb... "Q" - COMPUTERS ARE SUCKING GAS ! - period. ... and if that aint enough; just wait for Intel's surprise; they've got problems and won't be able to hide them much longer. Hey; just hope I get a little 15-20% move on the QQQ's & I'll be out under the radar; ready to go "short" again against tech - as this rally is NOT fundamentally supported and it shows that the Euphorians & Bubbleonians have "NOT" learned their lesson. Greenspan was feeling the heat to "ease" market worries and this was a "Valium" rally... ignore the underlying problems & ease/forget the pain & stress....take 2 Valiums & buy, buy, buy... The traders have decided that the Greenspan "put" is in place and fundamentals & reality be damned - they're going to have a Rally & they did ! ... hey; ride the wave - jump on their coat tails & let them pull you along... just don't forget to get off early. I have a feeling that we will get a rally thru the week before Xmas - then enough Xmas Retail stats will begin to bleed thru & the market will realize that we've got problems... Still have to think there are more Apple's out there yet to come... in fact; I know there are... Since we can't mount a rally into rising commodity prices; now that Crude's fallen to a 4 month low - it's time to Rally on up to OSX 120+... just watch this manic market do it... looks like the traders are ignoring reality & taking Greenspan's comments as the "Green Light" to go... if we get any follow through tomorrow & the rest of the week; the 'Patch is going to bounce strongly imo. - but; it's a in & out opp - be a pig, not a hog...nothings changed. Pass the Valium... PS: Roebear... I think the XAU is set up for a nice re-test then a rally off a double bottom - when the NAZ sobers up. I've been selling the larger XAU components NEM HM & rotating to smaller caps... I still like DROOY as a sleeper, KGC GLG KRY on weakness; I'm holding my cheap HGMCY & GOLD - I'll add on a retest of the 40-43 level on those two. Only got a little $5 AEM - I'm holding it... I'm also holding some mid $8ish SIL and I bought a lot of PAAS; here $2 3/4ish-7/8th is a steal imo; I added some more silver exposure on taking NEM profits & rotating and I will add more Silver - mainly PAAS on "any and all" weakness from here. FCX sure popped to from the high $6's allmost back to $9. HM ran 50% from its bottom & KGC 60% - there were some nice trades ... they bounced like PMCS & tech stocks !

To: Second_Titan who wrote (80796)	12/5/2000 7:26:12 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

As long as worldwide rig activity stays where its at or gets better, OPEC shows ability to control oil to ~$25 and no major new incremental gas supply finally materializes, we should be set for a return to OSX nirvana. Sustaining the present rig activity or better for 3-4 months w/o major recession concerns should do the trick. A lot of IFs but all very probable, IMO. We've seen the multiple expansion in OSX stocks ease back as the market appears to have said: "While the price of crude is bullish, we're not ready to give this sector very high multiples without a clearer future". As BigBull recently posted, the cure for $35 oil is $35 oil. A return to the mid-high 20s for a sustained period will eventually be viewed as very bullish for the long term.