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To: AllansAlias who wrote (44090)	12/5/2000 6:25:28 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

4 would be my guess too, but i'm trying to keep an open mind about that. the main reason why i think it's 4, is that two large cycles reach their nadir in late Jan - mid Feb. that implies a very rocky start to the year, probably going to be 5.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (44090)	12/5/2000 10:47:39 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<do you opine that this is a wave 4 or the A-B-C that could last weeks/months.> I think this is the really big wave four. Pull up the Nikkei chart and look at the consolidation from October 1990 through March 1991. I think we've entered this consolidative phase, which I'd call a wave four. Beware, though, that this phase hardly even existed in the 1929 collapse. I think that the size of wave four in a secular bear market is heavily influenced by how quickly the underlying economic fundamentals disintegrate, and how high the valuations were to begin with. Our fundamentals may be falling apart faster than Japan's; the market feedback may be even larger in our economy than theirs. While I may dabble a little on the long side here, my next big position will be a rebuild of my recent shorts on the attempts at 3000 and the May lows that now provide overhead resistance. BC