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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (37381)	12/5/2000 6:57:07 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Paul, Greenspan changes the game again...here's where I am struggling.... Although a move to 3050-3100 makes some sense, moving above that ALSO puts us back above the Nasdaq channel log...until 1998 (and Alan's 3 quick cuts, including a surprise inter-meeting), we never got above that upper channel line......The only reason why we stayed above that line is that Alan G. cut rates when normally wouldn't have (October 1998- misread severity of world financial situation), and, the doozy, Y2K liquidity pump in Oct/Nov/Dec. 1999...I saw nothing in today's comments that made me think Greenspan is going to give the market(s) any "gift" cuts, that he may cut once (twice at most), but certainly not 3 times (like 1998)....but not until things show more slowing...he stated without doubt, "this is not 1998"...to me, that means don't expect a rate cut in December...and only in January if data remains in the same downward trend... That's gonna hurt a lot of tech even in 1st and 2nd quarters... Didn't Greenspan today confirm what the market already should have known? (That they were thinking on cutting in the future, and that they are willing to go neutral in the meantime)..I mean the bond market has been telling us he's going to cut in January... (I had expected a Bush rally, and a rally into the Fed meeting...taking place next week....now that we got both early?, I am wondering if the market will retrace some of these gains next week..."sell the news"..and we'll have the daily "miss-the-earnings-report" to listen to... Can this move gets above 3100? And if it does, wouldn't it be a "buy/sell during the day/cash at night market"...we would be back floating in bubble territory? Finally, oil broke $30...that IS significant, and if it stays there...that really makes the soft landing scenario a much stronger argument....Stagflation back to the 70's shelf...