Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (21607)	12/5/2000 8:16:14 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Respond to of 275872

Kash, there are actually a lot of Duron systems showing up in the Sunday newspaper inserts the last few weeks. If Durons were selling well enough to keep ASPs down when they were basically invisible in the US, they have to be selling better now. This week's CPU price survey at tech-review.com was interesting in light of the announcement of upcoming cuts. Most Athlons are trending up a bit, not anticipated cuts as usually happens in an oversupply situation. Cheers, Dan.

To: kash johal who wrote (21607)	12/5/2000 8:16:45 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

kash, re:(Dan, I see a major problem...) I can see 3M Athlons in Q4 even in overall soft market - which is a 50% increase QonQ. I just dont see 3M Durons in this quarter. Oems are nowhere to be found except in a few cases. And 2-3M K6's are also expected. Again they have all but disappered even in notebooks. Maybe they are selling em overseas for $30-40 apiece. kash, here's the CPU numbers I see: Athlon 3M @150 Duron 2.6M @55 (if 1.5M were sold last quarter with NO OEM's, just Compaq's sales would add this many) K6x 2.6M @40 Overall 8.2M cpus, 697M revenue, ASP=$85 (vs. 625M Q3) Memory 460M (+9.5%) Chipsets, Networking, Foundry 150M (vs. 162M Q3) Total Revenue: 1.307B This is 33M short of the revenue estimate based on the Nov conference call, but is enough to meat 0.65 eps with some slight cost savings. This would put total CPU's for the year at 28M, which was confirmed as the expected number to be "shipped" in the c't interview yesterday. (englishish): translator.go.com Petz

To: kash johal who wrote (21607)	12/5/2000 9:19:55 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: I just dont see 3M Durons in this quarter. Oems are nowhere to be found except in a few cases. I've seen them (Duron systems), as well as seeing them advertised by, Best Buy, Circuit City, Sears, Comp USA, screwdriver shops, and more. They are certainly available for sale. Any guesses on the summed number of retail outlets of the companies listed above? Micron is doing build to order on the web. 3 million won't be easy, but it isn't impossible. And the United States isn't the only country in the world, either. If AMD sells out of Athlon, sells out of K6's, and has a half million Durons as carryover, wouldn't it still be a record quarter? Regards, Dan

To: kash johal who wrote (21607)	12/5/2000 10:44:18 PM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Respond to of 275872

I can see 3M Athlons in Q4 even in overall soft market - which is a 50% increase QonQ. I just dont see 3M Durons in this quarter. Oems are nowhere to be found except in a few cases. And 2-3M K6's are also expected. Again they have all but disappered even in notebooks. Maybe they are selling em overseas for $30-40 apiece. FWIW, I stopped in Circuit City in Poughkeepsie N.Y. today and saw a good number of Athlons up to 1GHz. Also 700MHz and 750MHz Durons. Also a Sony and an H.P. K62+ laptop. No PIIIs over 933MHz. THE WATSONYOUTH

To: kash johal who wrote (21607)	12/6/2000 1:40:50 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<Its tough to see how they make the quarter.> One would hope Apple is not representative of consumer PC slowdown. Apples numbers were downright scary. <With Flash still profitable - it would take sub $70 ASP's for the company to breakeven.> Not quite. Based on flat performance from Flash, AMD processor ASP's need to go down close to $50 to start losing money! (Almost a $40 drop in ASP erosion from the current levels.) CPU business by itself is probably breakeven in the $60+ range.