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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (37387)	12/5/2000 7:43:19 PM
From: Doo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Goddammit, you got that right. LOL!! I've got a great suit against one. Malicious prosecution for a malpractice suit he brought against a doc client of mine. I'll see if I can get you a link to the malpractice decision from our Supreme Court. It's a hoot. Thanks for the Guenoc. I'll see what I can get it for at cost....the legal price. heheh!!

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (37387)	12/5/2000 10:10:24 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Dennis et al....let me ask you about the following reasoning: Today was undoubtedly a jubilant day....and, most likely, we are going some higher....but how much is that some? 1- We never really had "the" capitulation day. I think we all agree that we hit an some sort of intermediate term bottom. 2- Alan G. DID NOT say this was like '98...aka...no "surprise cuts" (which I take to mean, no cut on 19th)...AND no 3 successive cuts- in all likelihood. If this is the case, how can we justify a HUGE rally (ie. 900-1000 pts off the bottom) in a few weeks...By the end of the day, Fed governor Perry was already out toning down what Greenspan said this morning...As if Alan G. said, "oops, I meant to steady the market, not send it back up in a rocket ship"...Having said this, if we go up another 200-300 pts between now and the 19th, wouldn't a neutral bias and fairly neutral words from the Fed be a DOWNER for the market, and we'd have a selloff of sorts.. 3- Serious money is not yet in this market (in a big way). Are hedge funds guys going to put their money immediately back into techs after Sept/Oct/Nov., or are they going to wait for a retest of that 2550? Wouldn't it follow, that if only SOME big money comes into the techs in the next couple weeks, that it will likely be muni fund managers who want to make a little money before year's out...so how many pts. is that worth? Some of those guys/girls got in today... 4- We are going to get more tech warnings...isn't that going to grind on the tech psychology? 5- The election, despite what the market thinks, is not over. Although I don't expect the Florida Supreme Court to overturn, there is an outside shot they could. Even more possible, the Democratic judge in Seminole Country (who supposedly was passed over for promotion by Jeb Bush) could throw out those 15,000 votes. I have heard that the case is hardly appealable (if she does). That would mean election to Gore. Conclusion: It seems that the market has already discounted much of the Bush effect and much of the Fed is "not a bad guy" effect. There is risk that (1) Bush will not win after all, and (2) Fed/Alan G. will appear less rosy on the 19th (for balance)..so, combined with tech warnings....I am struggling to come to any other conclusion then this rally dies out around 3050-3100 (Don's Fibonacci retracement AND touching upper end trend line of channel from 1990)..UNLESS (BIG UNLESS) Greenspan gives a "rosy" statement (ie. more "I feel your pain stuff) from the Fed on the 19th...Does that seem logically if we go up 500 pts in 3 weeks after his 1st speech? (Wouldn't he look to tone down then)? The only thing that IS bullish that I did not address is oil...and I agree, it is looking very good now (under $ 30)...but, no matter what oil does, I really don't expect Alan.G and the Feds to give us any more juice then necessary going forward...he wants to make up for 1998 mistake and Y2K... Dennis (or anyone)- Help convince me this potentially could be more than a 200-250 pt. move that is going to die out on the 19th (if not before)...PLEASE!