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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (37388)	12/5/2000 9:22:25 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 42787

<Paul, Greenspan changes the game again...here's where I am struggling....> excellent post JRI,and my instincts are with you,the "struggling" part with me is that haunting notion,"can history repeat itself",i took a body slam(a major hit) last year at about this time when i went against NASD,and it took all the trading guts i could find,or even imagined i had,to fight that loss back to an even,and subsequently get to being now 20% up from what my trading account had after that loss. last year my major miscalcution was not factoring in the "Mania Factor" ---once burned twice shy my situation now. i do believe however last year was an anomaly,and like your reasoning on this.PaxMax

To: JRI who wrote (37388)	12/6/2000 10:15:07 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

JRI, >>puts us back above the Nasdaq channel log<< that's a very good point. Certainly doesn't seem to be a satisfactory outcome to go back into the bubble. I think we're above the linear channel line now. I would assume this wouldn't turn into a 1998-2000 sprint, as I've said. Valuations are much higher, and AG has only said he's on the lookout to make sure we don't slip into a recession. There's a lot of data (Marty Zweig and others) that says that three rate cuts leads to a minimum market move of 16%; add all the Y2K liquidity, and the inflation occurred in stock prices. He's gonna make sure that doesn't happen this time unless it's absolutely necessary. That said, we've had at least a few satisfactory signs of a bottom, so I don't see lower lows ahead, barring some unforeseen shock. Maybe we're back to the old 2500-2900 trading range. I still think we need one more sign for a bottom: Nasdaq 3000, SPX 1400, and INDU 11,000+, taking out the highs of the last month or so. If we stay in the 2500-2900 range, we won't get those. ;-)