Portfolio up a staggering 12.76%, Dow up 3.21%, Nasdaq up a record 10.48%, S&P500 up 3.89%, Gilder up 13.9%, Meisler up 11.6%, J-Blimps up 16.4%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy up 5.3%
This was the record day for the Nasdaq in history. Say it again the highest gain point wise and percentage wise ever. Ever.
Best days in Nasdaq history percentage wise.
12/05/00 10.48% Greenspan, crude dropping below $30 and positive election outcome
05/30/00 7.94%
10/13/00 7.87% Friday the 13th and a Full Moon too.
10/21/87 - 7.34%
4/18/00 - 7.19%
4/25/00 - 6.57%
4/17/00 - 6.56%
09/08/98 - 6.02%
10/20/87 - 5.92%
11/14/00 5.78%
10/31/00 5.58% Halloween
NYSE Volume: 1.39 bln...Adv: 2076...Dec: 841
Up Volume 1026.83 Down Volume 314.18 day 1 of 2/1 advance
Nasdaq Volume: 2.46 bln...Adv: 2783...Dec: 1201 Huge volume and it’s up. Not as high as Thursday capitulation.
Up Volume 2022.13 Down Volume 373.25 Two billion up. I haven’t seen that.
Put/Call ratio 0.63 (Range 0.53 to 0.63) Neutral , notice the put increased as the rally intensify.
Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
Nasdaq Comp. ($COMPQ) 2889.80 +274.05 +10.48% Out of nowhere the rally starts with a gap up and rages into an inferno with Greenspan’s positive comments. Greenspan's key comment regarding a softened policy tone was that "in an economy that already has lost some momentum, one must remain alert to the possibility that greater caution and weakening asset values in financial markets could signal or precipitate an excessive softening in household and business spending." In other words, risk of more economic slowing than the Fed sees as justified.
Collapse of the day
Gold ($XAU) 47.97 -2.39 -4.75% No interest in the shiny metal when the gold is in the techs. Gold could be the investment of choice heading into the holidays. Thom Caldera of CBSMarketwatch early this morning.
One stock
Nokia (NOK) Nokia extended its revenue growth target of 25-35% from 2002 to include 2003 which is important as analysts had been expecting a slower growth rate for 2003. In addition, Nokia expects first-half 2001 revenue growth to be in the upper range of 25%-35%. Also, Nokia expects that there will be more web-connected mobile phone handsets than personal computers in the world by 2002, an earlier projection than the previously stated 2003. Nokia has said it expects global mobile internet service revenues to exceed 1999 voice service revenue levels by 2004. "In the mobile world, the best is yet to come," chairman and chief executive Jorma Ollila said. "The opportunities in the future are enormous as we enter an unprecedented time when mobility, internet, digitised media and other content can be combined and become available to almost anyone, anytime and anywhere."
Note: This news is huge in that so many companies were predicting a weak spring and NOK is saying it looks good. MOT had warned but were weak in Europe anyways.
Portfolio Watch
ORCL up 11.75% Industry leaders Oracle and Motorola have expanded their successful relationship by announcing the first release of MObileBlueprint Version 1.0. MObileBlueprint is designed to help customers create mobile eBusiness applications and deliver them over the growing selection of personal wireless devices available.
FDRY up 20.37%
SSTI up 12.06% Hammered along with the rest of the chip sector in recent weeks, SSTI now trading at 11.4x estimated FY00 earnings of $1.17 and 5.2x projected FY01 earnings of $2.59... Interestingly, earnings estimates for SSTI have actually risen in the past 30 days from $1.14 and $2.30... Though the price action suggests that many investors don't have a lot of confidence in those estimates, at current levels even if we get a warning from the company in the days ahead the additional downside risk should be limited - as most of the potential for bad news is already priced in... And if management stands by its earlier guidance than the stock represents one of the best values in the entire tech sector
SDLI up 15.83%
AMCC up 23.42%
CREE up 20.81%
JNPR up 20.49% Wit SoundView believe that the long discussed move to bypass SONET infrastructure may be in the early stages of impacting vendor selections. Expects transition to favor CIEN, CSCO, JNPR,
SCMR.
RMBS up 13.49%
WFII up 20.07%
INKT up a monster 56.98% Number two gainer of the day. The company unveiled its Traffic Server 4.0 software. The new release makes Inktomi's network cache platform available to Linux systems for the first time
Note: Most servers are running on the Linux platform per a CC with LNUX CEO in July.
SUNW up 16.32%
NETE up 26.97%
SCMR up 29.07%
NTAP up a screaming 40.93% Salomon Smith Barney positive as EMC's new network-attached storage (NAS) system product, Clariion IP 4700, did not go too aggressively into the low-end of the market. Firm believes the announcement will act as a pressure release for Network Appliance (NTAP); both are making presentations at the Salomon SAN conference later today.
Shopping List
AMAT (This is the premier semi-equipment company. Re-entry $36, nov 15th earnings)
At $44. 73/54 pos, 16% of total. Day 1 pos. Chart: Moderate volume for 14% gain
KOPN (Cyberdisplay leader, re-entry around $10)
7/5 pos, day 1 pos, 8% volume. At $13. Chart: 30% gain on moderate volume
BRCD (leader in fiber channel, 357% growth. PE of 652 at $260, Nov 29th earnings)
At $189. 129/122 neg 19% vol. Day 3 neg. Chart: Broke the 200 ema
BreezeCOM (BRZE) (162% growth rate, Present PE 80 or so) Reports Q3 earnings of $0.11 a share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.09; revenues rose 162.1% to $29.01 mln from a year-ago of $11.07 mln;
Note: At $15, 9/3 blocks neg for day 5. Volume 60% Chart: highest volume in three months
Salomon Smith Barney starts coverage of broadband wireless access solutions company with a BUY rating and $21 target price. Should have gone up more, but upgrade may have been for people to sell into.
YHOO ( PE of 146, growth of 90%,)
At 43, 57/32 neg, 30% of total, day 1 neg, Chart: moderate volume for 30% rise
CAMP (Fixed wireless leader, yahoo got PE wrong, need to see buying)
At $17. 8/3 neg, day 1 neg, 23% volume Chart: bounce
SFA (cable box leader, re-entry near lows with buying trend up)
At $49, 6/4 pos day 4 pos, 20% volume, Chart: bounce on Downward spiral.
SEBL ( leading CRM company coming down now)
At $90 118/89 neg, day 2 neg, 20% vol. Chart: broke above 200 day EMA
Enters into a strategic alliance with Tumbleweed Comms (TMWD 16 1/4) to integrate Siebel eMail Response and eService with Tumbleweed Integrated Messaging Exchange to provide a secure two-way communications channel, enhancing customer response management and customer service on the Internet;
EMKR (technology leader in each of its markets. Records in revenues and backlog.)
At $37. 3/1 neg, day 1 neg, 10% vol. Chart: support at $30
Broadcom (BRCM) up 11.68%: (leader in sector)
Fallout from 3Com (COMS) warning could impact BRCM shares, as COMS accounted for approx. 14.6% of BRCM sales in the qtr ended Sept. 30. Dropped from watch list.
OLN ( Profitable chemical company coming back, PE 10, growth 32% projected)
At $17, 0/1 neg, 15%, day 1 neg.
DD (Dow stock with some bad years but good balance sheet, Present PE 16.8 and 11% growth but thinking this is down too much.)
At $45, 18/14, 33% volume. Chart: Broke triple top.
Watch List things to watch but not trade
Again resume Monday
QQQ at $70, 591/415 pos day 2 pos. Volume is 80%. Chart: Halfway between 200/50 day ema.
LVLT, KLIC, RFMD, ADI, PMCS, BVSN, C, COVD, ISLD, KEM, MOT, QCOM, JDSU, TXN, TSCM, GX are ones worth watching
Xilinx (XLNX) 41 11/16: Salomon Smith Barney reduces FY01 estimate to $1.25 from $1.30 and FY02 to $1.65 from $1.80. Revision to estimates follow XLNX earnings warning issued last night. Chip maker reduced its sequential growth guidance to 5%-7% from 12%....
Natural MicroSystems (NMSS) down 50.29%: Component supplier to telecom equipment providers down sharply after warning for Q4 as it sees revs of $40 mln, flat with Q3, and EPS between $0.06 and $0.08 versus the $0.12 consensus estimate
Note: On the radar to see if they drop it further.
LSI Logic (LSI) Chip maker guides Q4 net to $0.34 a share, which would be 2 cents shy of the $0.36 expected by analysts. Lowers Q4 revenue growth outlook to 3%-4% from 10%. Cites lowered customer short-term requirements as a result of the build-up of inventory in the supply chain
Apple (AAPL) after hours said that its first-quarter revenue will be "substantially" below expectations and it expects to report its first quarterly loss in three years. The computer company expects to report a loss, excluding nonoperating gains, of between $225 million to $250 million.
Summary
Well, well, well. Quite unexpected with LSI, XLNX, and NMSS having problems.
Ever have the feeling the MMs who have absorbed the dumping of shares these last three months are making people pay to buy the high fliers kicked down. I say this as volume was not as heavy as I expected for stocks moving up 30%. The market is a snake on LSD and we don’t know where it will be in the short term. Even the pundits and gurus missed the day. TA sure didn’t show this yesterday.
Changewaver Tobin Smith advised people to go mostly cash with some buystops on a few. They missed the rally because the gap probably bypassed it. Dec 4, 2000 Our pick of last few days ,, IWOV JNPR PMCS VRSN INRG NTAP make sure to go cash EOD ,, Tokyo Joe who also missed the run. “We’re in downtrendville” Gary B. Smith of TSCM.
The rally today was a short’s nightmare. Heaven forbid if you shorted on margin. I have to expect profitaking on many of the double digit gainers as block trades were not the cause of the rise but retail investors pushing it up.
Oil prices declining along with the potential Fed rate cut is like injecting a triple dose of speed into Speedy Gonzales. The market looks ahead and the future is bright. Oh, those earnings were in PC, telecom so the market was expecting it. CIEN Thursday morning will be key.
I hope the longs who stayed in techs did well today. This may be fleeting like a hot roll on a crap table, but you were a momentary part of history that was positive.
Jack
. I'm wondering if Jack thinks it's okay to eat and spend time with the family and what not before doing the update?
Good one. Basketball is at 4pm our time and I'm glad the market is close or I'd have to make some tough decisions. |
