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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (80814)	12/8/2000 1:14:14 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 95453

excardog, In my work I interact with oil & gas companies and, gas p/l's, and one refiner that constantly arbitrage their supply of NG. Now these are internal company traders, not Wall Street traders. Their aim is to keep their refineries running, pipelines full, or gas production sold. Their primary point of reference is the first day of Winter or December 21st. If gas in storage begins to decline prior to December 21st then we may see some spikes in price. If gas in storage does not begin to decline before December 21st, then natural gas prices will fall back to the $3.25-3.50 range by Spring. Event Number One has already happened and company traders are cueing off of that event. Their general consensus held since September is that Henry Hub gas will rise to the $10-12/mcf range sustained for a short-term period maybe of 4-7 weeks this Winter, and may also have daily intraday price spikes of $15/mcf. Then prices will slacken in the Spring, and then firm into the summer as use in NG-fired plants rises...If NG falls back eventually into the $4.00-$4.50 mcf range, then most alternative energy projects will not have any price advantages on NG....