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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (37392)	12/5/2000 9:01:04 PM
From: Doo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Any time during the window (3rd-10th day off an intraday low) in an established downtrend, that you see 1% or greater move in an index on volume that shows an increase over the prior day's trade, you have follow through confirmation of an intermediate term low. All you need is one follow through day. But,the more within the window, the better. April '96 had 3 off the low within the window and you literally could buy anything and make money. Working strictly with price and volume signals, the low is confirmed for an intermediate term of 3-9 months. WON/IBD says that the signal has an 80% success rate. Since Oct. '98, however, my recollection would cut that to about 50%. Add IIA sentiment extremes into the mix, and you bump the success rate back up toward WON/IBD representations which cover a much longer period of time. Sorry if that is not clear. Ask me again tomorrow after I've fed the animals. :)