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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MIRU who wrote (13074)12/5/2000 9:16:52 PM
From: Bearcatbob  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 15703
 
Once this thing proves to be producable all of this discussion will become mute. There will be massive disappearance of either these low share prices or the companies - IMHO. The painful gyrations of the day to day action do not mean a thing. This thing will be what it will be and we do not know yet - although I sure think it will be huge.

Bob



To: MIRU who wrote (13074)12/5/2000 9:42:41 PM
From: Brumell  Respond to of 15703
 
Feel free to question and voice opinions, Nostarch. That's what these threads are for. Otherwise we simply become a cheering section. Don't know about you but I look lousy in a skirt.

FWIW there may have been another consideration for deepening. Perhaps what they had was not thought what they wanted. Interestingly, in BKP's NR they didn't mention porosity or net pay. JV partners may have decided it was better to gamble on deepening than going with what they had. Call it just a hunch.

If the market is any judge, it was a good move. It continued dropping with the "old" BKP#2, and rose beautifully with the deeper BKP#2. Has to make you think. So does all the selling at HTP...<ggg>.

This play has an unreal feel to it. Perhaps it's deja vu.

Bob



To: MIRU who wrote (13074)12/6/2000 3:18:18 AM
From: grayhairs  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15703
 
nostarch,

I'm sorry if you feel that you need moral support as a consequence of my response(s) to your posts. My poor communication skills have obviously offended you. My apologies.

<<I was not suggesting that deepening BKP#2 was a bad idea, or that a 30 day delay in production was a big deal.>>

No, I didn't for a minute think that you had. My point was simply that this was another familiar example which would demonstrate that fastest is not always the bestest !! Fastest will maximize PV when all other things remain constant, but otherwise ????????

<<What I am suggesting is that the ELH reserves are so big that 10 wells at 15 mmcf/d won't produce those reserves fast enough to give us good present value of the ultimate cash flows. 30 year reserve life is for grandkids - let them find their own damned gas!>>

First, although a 15 MMCF/d ELH well is indeed highly profitable, I believe it is rather pessimistic to anticipate same as the average ELH well rate.

Second, I have never heard of a JV development plan that calls for only 10 wells !!!! Where did that one come from ?? Even with 640 acre spacing the field would certainly be developed with multiple wells per section, potentially 4/sec (An Upper Carneros completion, A Lower Carneros completion, An Agua completion, and a Phacoides completion). That's potentially 80 wells for a 20 section ELH pool.

Third, with spacing of 160 acres, I sincerely doubt that we'd ever see 16 wells per section (16x20=320 wells @ $12MM = $3.84B) to drain the same reserve.

Later,
grayhairs