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To: Shack who wrote (44199)	12/5/2000 9:36:51 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Dunno if the N225 will continue to show us the true way here, but I am thinking we are closer to the previous low on the N225 -- the Aug 1990 low. That lead to a very short rally and then the Oct 1990 low you speak of. If you are right, and you may well be, then we can look forward to many weeks, quite probably months before we get serious down.

To: Shack who wrote (44199)	12/5/2000 9:51:10 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 436258

Smelly closed just under the triangle it broke out of recently. That was an important break and negating/reversing it would have strongly bullish implications. The next barrier would be the bottom of the large flag. Old flag image: homepages.go.com Slightly old triangle image: homepages.go.com

To: Shack who wrote (44199)	12/5/2000 10:05:40 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i agree...the parallels end right there (pattern and rate talk). however, a recession is not a certainty...we are just assuming that it is very likely, which it indeed is. let's not underestimate bubble boy and his printing press though. re. Nikkei, i assume you're talking about the early October rally...that's what i thought too that we might be at that point. however, the are arguments against this interpretation. the NAZ had a much deeper initial decline (percentage wise), it also had a bigger blow-off. therefore, stage 2 of the BK should be deeper too, also to satisfy the breaking of the shelf and ideally a revisit of the '98 low, or at least the '98 high. otoh, the triangle pattern preceding the final(for '90) washout in the Nikkei looks remarkably like that of the NAZ around the 3K level... guess the next few days will tell where it actually is in relation to the Nikkei...time-wise about the same time has elapsed...and today's rally was as impressive as that of the Nikkei off said low. all things considered you're probably right...