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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nosmo_king who wrote (36018)	12/6/2000 9:28:43 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

nosmo, Nice post! I've got a few thoughts. many stocks remain overvalued It would be interesting if you would take the time to make that case for at least two or three of them as examples. Just a few days ago I mentioned that Siebel had dipped in intra-day trading to a fair value for the first time in a long while. The price is now 50% higher. But of course, Siebel has been trading in the "overvalued" range for years. I suspect it will continue that trend so long as the company continues to operate full tilt on all cylinders. yesterday's bounce really had nothing to do with company fundamentals. It seemed to be fueled mostly by perceived stability in US politics & perhaps some premature notions on the Fed's consideration of drop in interest rates next year. The anticipation of interest rates that at least go no higher and the expectation that they might go lower has a lot to do with companies' fundamentals. By placing the bet the market did yesterday, it is looking forward to what it considers improved fundamentals. It's impossible to know if the market reacted more to the realization that the election fiasco is very near a predictable conclusion or if it reacted to the perception of potentially improved fundamentals suggested by Greenspan's speech. (That is, I'm relatively unphased, either way.) That attitude makes it a lot easier to sleep at night, huh. I get the sense from time to time that the older/wiser other members of the thread occasionally feel badly for the newbies who've been taking it on the chin this year. I don't know about "older and wiser," but many of us definitely feel bad for the newbies. It's much more gratifying for newbies if the first year of investing is profitable. Thanks much for your post! --Mike Buckley

To: nosmo_king who wrote (36018)	12/6/2000 10:54:05 AM
From: areokat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

other members of the thread occasionally feel badly for the newbies who've been taking it on the chin this year. What I hope has happened is the newbies have received enough support to stick it out. We will all probably be looking back on this recent time frame as an outstanding buying opportunity and wishing we had had more ready cash. My experience was that it was my '98 buys that provided the cushion for the negative performance of my more recent investments and kept the entire portfolio out of the red. One of the strengths of LTB & H is that not all of your stocks have to do well, just enough of them. FWIW Kat