Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (37436)	12/6/2000 11:46:49 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Paul, thanks....let me throw one more scenario out for you...John Roque of Arnold S. Bleichschroder saying he thinks that this market could get to 3500 on this rally...I respect Roque because he made some great calls this year and knows/understands how to apply market history... Anyway, if you recall, 3500 was where we REALLY cracked the on the downside..that was a clear signal of the trouble to come... Now, maybe the "flush out" has to occur as follows: We break the upper channel (3070-3100), illogically, and get sent off again in bubble territory...the mutual funds all get fully invested and some big hedge funds join the party...and push us (irrationally) to the 3500...at that point, we run out of steam, partly because too many folks are worried that we've gone too far/too fast AND too many are still expecting a retest AND a lot of mutual fund owner get their statements (in January/February), and will look at how much they lost this past year AND the big tax hit..and start pulling money out of the market....Etc., etc Maybe to get the momentum to drive thru 2550 on the downside, we really need the last aspects of irrationally- one more irrational BIG move up to suck in the last losers.....to irrationally pop up above what this rally should REALLY do- which is stop at the 3070-3100 (upper channel line)...and turn around...and get back in the channel.. So, today's <G> thesis: (1) If we get to 3500 (at which point we will SURELY break DOWN), then we will likely go thru 2550 (2200?) on the "flush".....(2) If we get to 3070-3100 (upper chanel line AND Fibannoci retracement 38%) and turn south...then maybe 2550 will hold as the retest, and we are back in the channel (where we should be), going from median to channel high, and back (like 1990-1998)..more in line with earnings growth... So, at the 3100 point, either the BIG BOYS start buying, or it will be tough to get to 3500...will they? Don't know...but we'll know if/when they do... Also, if we break 2550 by next February/March on the downside, looks like the lower channel trend line will be up above 2000, and will make 2200 a pretty decent buy point.. Investor Intelligence Survey out...still way too high bullish....I don't know yet what to make of today....I was expecting a low volume, 30-40 pts. DOWN day....and another rest tomorrow...volume heavy today...that is throwing me, and making me think there could be follow-thru later.. I thought we would see the action (that we are seeing today), but I thought we would have less volume..Don't know what to make on it (heavy volume)...