To: jim_p who wrote (80875 ) 12/6/2000 1:16:35 PM From: Jon Cave Respond to of 95453 Crude Price Drop In Early Dec May Be Temporary DJN: DJ EIA -2: Crude Price Drop In Early Dec May Be Temporary WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. households face soaring bills this winter for both natural gas and heating oil, and the downturn so far this month in crude prices may be temporary, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Soaring natural gas prices over the past month have led the EIA, which is the statistical wing of the U.S. Department of Energy, to raise its retail gas price forecast for the winter by 57 cents to $9.21 per thousand cubic feet - 40% above last winter's level. Combined with presumed higher gas consumption this winter, that would raise the typical gas-heated household's bill about 50%, the agency says in its monthly short-term energy outlook report. For heating oil, the EIA raised its projection this month for winter prices by 12 cents to an average of $1.52 a gallon - 34 cents above last winter's level. Combined with higher consumption, that would boost an oil-heated household's winter fuel bill more than one-third. For crude oil, the EIA warns that a downturn in prices since Friday may prove to be temporary, partly because of "the annoying reality of languishing actual stockpiles amidst claims of large aggregate excess production." The agency has raised its crude price forecast for 2001 by $4.71 to $28.72/bbl, and now expects imported crude to remain slightly above $30/barrel through the first half of 2001. New supplies would lead to a downturn in mid- or late 2001, it says. EIA says indications of rising global oil inventories in its projections are likely overstated owing to a recurrence of what's come to be known as the "missing barrels" problem. Specifically, "the available limited data for tracking inventories suggest that inventories haven't been building as fast as any of the global supply/demand estimates (including EIA's) would indicate, and that some of the oil that is being produced worldwide is unaccounted for," the EIA says.