Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (80887)	12/6/2000 6:22:06 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Wacky Market out there... Here's all I am trying to do here: I doubled my Oils here - up to a "whopping" 30% portfolio holding (VBG); because it seemed like the Street was buying into the "Greenspan Put" rescuing the market once again... and I thought that it was a good chance/opportunity to "catch" a broad market bounce move with the wind behind our backs. Positive risk vs reward re-entry's are far & few behind in this market. I viewed this as a chance for a quick little in & out 20-25% upside bounce rally; with the risk of perhaps a 10%ish downside move to OSX 90-94 and upside potential of OSX 120-125; for potentially a 20-25% upside versus 10% downside; or a 2 - 2.5:1 reward vs risk ratio. When I bought; I set stops down about 10%ish lower than my buy in prices (stops @ $18 MRL, $8.5 GLBL) and planned to raise tight trailing stops right up behind any penetration rally thru OSX 120 if seen. I only bought 5,6 Oilpatch stocks; mostly MRL one of my fav's that I believe I've got a realy good feel of the tape for & hoped to catch the wind behind my back for a little 3-10 day rally / MRL move from $20 to $25 and then getting out before that last 10 days of December; where we can see that last bit of tax loss selling pressure if the rally hits resistance, or exhaustion. Sentiment-wise; we just might need Crude to hit $26-28ish & then get strong buying support & bouce back to $28-$30. Thinking that with the Oilpatch earnings still so visible here; that we just might get some sector rotation based on earnings, earnings, earnings - as that is the one thing that is missing from this market - earnings momenteum ! Intel with negative guidance; Apple implodes, HP didn't bite the bullet & lower guidance and the talk is all over the Street than now; HP is set up to miss big... so; perhaps this market will come back to earnings momenteum - especially; if Crude finds $28ish support & with Nat Gas just ramping here. Even thought we've disconnected here from commodity prices & our strong underlying fundamentals - we nearly due from "default" to get some inflows just from those who have to put some money to work & want earnings... Since the Tech rally did not "stick" - hasn't yet anyway; maybe some of this money that we saw come out of the woodwork will follow the earnings leadership that the Patch has near exclusivity on ? I honestly think I've finally internalized my "lessons learned" from 97-98; as I honestly feel "over-exposed" re-entering here to just a 30% Oilpatch position in this broad market weakness & our dislocation from both commodity prices & the underlying fundamentals and earnings. Sticking with my Golds here... US Dollar is, must and will be "walked" down by Greenspan. Weakening US Corportate earnings mandate that it must be; the stress fractures in other currencies & economies mandate that it must be and if the Fed eases; a weaker dollar is a natural by-product of any easing... AND ---> Gold trades inversely to the US Dollar. I think we see XAU 60 (roughly 30%upside) regardless of any significant flight to safety rotation, or without any negative market events - just in merely returning to the bottom of the trading band on a pure fundamental valuation basis. Tech ? - good luck anyone... I'm a believer that if you do trade Tech; that the QQQ's are a gift from the Risk-Gods; as individual Company blow-ups are still epidemic... You can't own anything and sleep well. A sector peer warns any any company can get killed by association !?!? I've still got my QQQ's - small 4-5%ish position I bought as I closed out my shorts (too soon?) as a hedge... I'll use stops there as well. My "gut feel" tells me we just might put together a short little against the grain Oilpatch Rally here; as there has to be a pool of money searching for earnings momenteum out there; but I'm looking to sell starting at OSX 120ish...and I want out before the last 10 days of Dec - but; I do like buying that last 2-3 days on weakness; as we had some serious "tape painting" in the Oilpatch last year. Anyone remember RRC & a few others big end of the month/year run ups ? - a few fundies will pull thier numbers up a bit. Earnings are still going to continue to come down in the Broad Market; especially Tech and Valuations are going to get compressed dramatically as growth rates slow. Still think Dow 8750 & NAZ 2000 are very "fairly valued"... I think it's better than 50:50 we see both within 6 mos... Not sure the OSX can go to new highs - against the broad market grain; unless we get to those market lows here before March; then if so; we really may truly be at a market bottom & the OSX can be perfectly positioned for that March to May rally to new highs. If we hold OSX 95-115 into a correcting/bottoming NAZ 2000 & DOW 8750; then the OSX can run thru 150-165 next spring. ... amazing; I feel "over-exposed" in this Wacky Market at 30% Oil's & 5% in QQQ's; even with 35% Gold and 30% Cash. I'd love to catch a OSX move to 125, a 20% pop on those "QQQ's and get out under the wire before year end. I think Q4 reporting from tech will lead to more blood in the streets... if the NAZ doesn't rally thru 3100-3200 on Greenspan's "green light" - we're going down thru 2000 - bank on it... Cash, Cash, Cash; tight stops for downside protection & don't be a Hog if we get an OSX rally here... and Gold is a man's best friend. ... enough rambling; it is now rather obvious that the "Big & Easy" Money Train has come & gone... no wonder Cramer & Vinik decided to hang up their hats here - this market is W-A-C-K-Y ~ Next 48 hours going to be real intersting; we'll see if this "Greenspan Put" rally sticks here.