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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2051)	12/6/2000 8:16:26 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2850

SSB's Jonathon Joseph says that this Q is shaping up as the worst Q in over a decade...and Joseph has made some good calls this year. the AAPL miss did not help either. December 6, 2000 SUMMARY * All our inputs suggest Intel's (INTC, 2M) Q4 is shaping SEMICONDUCTORS up to be its worst quarter in over a decade. Last week we Jonathan Joseph reduced estimates for the company. Our revenue forecast for the Dec quarter was reduced from $9.1 billion, 4% sequential growth, to $8.9 billion, 2% growth. Dunham Winoto * Given the lower revenue outlook, we reduced our GM assumption from 63% to 62%, and cut our EPS estimate from $0.42 to $0.39. We also cut our EPS for next year from $1.55 to $1.50. Given the weaker outlook, we expect the 2001 consensus estimate of $1.76 to come down substantially. * We also reduced our Q4 microprocessor unit forecast from about 4% unit growth to flat; we are assuming flat pricing for now. FUNDAMENTALS P/E (12/00E) 21.7x P/E (12/01E) 24.0x TEV/EBITDA (12/00E) NA TEV/EBITDA (12/01E) NA Book Value/Share (12/00E) $5.38 Price/Book Value 6.7x Dividend/Yield (12/00E) $0.06/0.2% Revenue (12/00E) $33,900.0 mil. Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth 25% ROE (12/00E) NA Long-Term Debt to Capital(a) 1.6% INTC is in the S&P 500(R) Index. (a) Data as of most recent quarter SHARE DATA RECOMMENDATION Price (12/5/00) $36.00 Current Rating 2M 52-Week Range $74.88-$32.94 Prior Rating 2M Shares Outstanding(a) 7,006.0 mil. Current Target Price $45.00 Convertible No Previous Target Price $45.00 EARNINGS PER SHARE FY ends 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Year 12/99A Actual $0.29A $0.26A $0.28A $0.35A $1.16A 12/00E Current $0.36A $0.50A $0.41A $0.39E $1.66E Previous $0.36A $0.50A $0.41A $0.39E $1.66E 12/01E Current $0.37E $0.37E $0.38E $0.38E $1.50E Previous $0.37E $0.37E $0.38E $0.38E $1.50E 12/02E Current NA NA NA NA NA Previous NA NA NA NA NA First Call Consensus EPS: 12/00E $1.68; 12/01E $1.71; 12/02E $1.97 SUMMARY (CONT'D) * Flash and Internet ICs will almost certainly be up in the quarter, though the company will not likely get the boost from chipsets this quarter they got in Q3. Flash and Internet ICs generated 5% sequential revenue growth on flat processors last quarter, but will in aggregate likely have a smaller contribution this quarter.