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Gold/Mining/Energy : Corner Bay Silver (BAY.T) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (1652)	12/6/2000 4:13:34 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Respond to of 4409

<Its interesting that you dismiss the possible decline of silver use in photography as important to the price of silver, yet I remember you stating that it accounted for a third of the silver used. > Grace, Yes... silver in photographic is 1/3 of total demand... But demand is already much lower than total supply. So even if silver consumption from this sector is cut by half (this would means approx 130 millions less silver used in photography) something that will not happened within the current decade, it would still not be enough to fill the deficit of 150 millions ounces. <Reading this article I can also tell you that it is already dated. You can triple the pixels and half the prices quoted on digital cameras.> I agree with you and that is why more and more North Americans, Japenese and European are going digital. Still silver demand from these 3 regions will go up again n 2000 to more than 95% of total consumption of silver in photos. <Saying that people in third world countries can't "afford" digital ignores the number of cell phones and satellite dishes you come across there> Well I rely on the numerous testimonies I have received from the people who have travelled there. <How long has this deficit been in place? > Several years...since the early 90's. <How much effect has it had on the price of silver thus far?> None simply because we started last decades with huge inventories of in excess of 1.5 billions ounces. <The numbers for the digital side are growing at a much better multiple, especially the medical. I imagine if I take a look at Fuji's numbers I'll see similar results. > Make sense. We are going digital. But not next year. Not in the next five. Before the world is 100% digital, billions of silver ounces will be used in production of films. <You tell me the cost of silver makes little difference in the cost of film and paper, but this is only because the price of silver is so low. I'm old enough to remember when the price of silver was high and these guys were scrambling to find an alternative. The only thing that killed off that effort was a collapse in the price of silver! > May be this was when silver was $15/$20 per ounce... then such prices start to influence the cost of films. But at current prices, silver can double and tripple before starting to impact in a major way on EK balance sheet. A stock like BAY (now at $1.50) will have a net asset value approaching $17-18 with silver at $7. If silver goes to $10, BAY's net asset value will rise above $30. At silver $10, BAY would have some US$170 millions in revenus in Y1. Not bad for a market cap of US$12 millions. Silver was $8 just a few years ago... it can easily get back there. In 1981, SIlver move to US$50 at a time when silver inventories where much much hhigher than today. And we didn't have a deficit in those day. Grace, the silver market is tiny.. Annual sales of silver are US$4 billions... peanuts in todays world. Base metal producers have been selling silver forward for the past 4 years causing additional supplies. Future deliveries to the consumers may well be compromised as these same deliveries go to fullfill forward contracts obligations. If the initial lenders want their silver back... there will be a big problem. Silver is at thin hot market...so his BAY. Corner Bay is now setting the stage for solid promotion in the US next year... They will not need silver at $10... Give us silver at $6 and we have a double digit stock in a couple of years. CC

To: GraceZ who wrote (1652)	12/7/2000 7:19:22 AM
From: Raja	Respond to of 4409

<<Saying that people in third world countries can't "afford" digital ignores the number of cell phones and satellite dishes you come across there.>> A good point and quite true. BUT, percentage wise the number of people in developing countries who possess these items are much, much less than in developed countries. And don't forget that (i) cell phones are important for business and so are higher on the priority list; (ii) I know for sure that in the U.K. 50% of population (approx. 28 million) has cell phone; whereas in India "The Indian GSM market has broken through the 500,000 subscriber barrier, expected to reach 3 million by the year 2000." india-today.com "NEW DELHI, MAY 18. 2000 The number of cellular service users in the country is poised to touch the 2-million mark.."http://www.indiaserver.com/thehindu/2000/05/19/stories/06190005.htm Remember that the total pop. is about 1 billion. (I didn't bother to search for figures in China, Indonesia, Russia, Africa, etc..) and (iii) with regards to a large nation such as India satellite or cable t.v. is very affordable for most middle-class people (subscription costs about Rs.150 per month = US$3.25); and as a great medium of entertainment it ranks very high on the priority list I mentioned earlier. Raja