Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (36044)	12/6/2000 8:11:38 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, << I would probably guess that those that have fallen the least in a market-wide tech slide will probably gain the most in an equally strong market-wide reversal of fortune. >> I somewhat (but strongly) disagree. Perhaps because, although I am a long time Gorilla Gamer, I also watch sectors (in the tech industry, and outside the tech industry) very closely and have for many years. Sectors come into favor, and go out of favor. There are always reasons for this. Obviously within a sector the stocks that are most out of favor have the most reason to be out of favor (LU a great example, MSFT a real special case example. QCOM a good example that Tek explained well). Lets look at the performance of just a few sector funds this year and I'll start with some Morningstar perennial 4 or 5 Star funds from the Fidelity Select family YTD performance: * Home Finance = + 34% * Health Care = +27% * Brokerage & Investment = + 20.5% * Financial Services = + 14.4% (whoops thats INVESCO's) * Utilities = - 11% * Electronics = -1 5.4% * Computers = - 20% (charter expanded to include software) Now lets look at some of the sectors we invest in. * Storage * Wireless * Fiber Optics * Semi's Storage is in favor so NTAP up 84% YTD & EMC up 65% Wireless (and Telecoms) & Fiber Optics are closely related and are ICE COLD and in the dumpster, and for the same reasons, so amomgst the Wireless & Telecomm sector we have one and only one company green, Nokia at +8% (and last week it was red). Then we have (a few from the thirty I watch in this sector): * ERICY = - 19% * VSTR = - 20% * NT = - 21% * VOD = - 23% * AWE = - 38% * QCOM= - 44% * PCS = - 48% * WCOM = - 72% * LU = - 77% * SVNX - - 84% * IDCC = - 91% Optics. JDSU is down 19% Semi's. I wont't bore you. same thing. Can't explain SEBL. must be a good company. <g> Wireless & Telecom will turn (carriers slowly). Opticals will turn. Semi's will turn. Within each sector. Gorillas & Kings will lead the turn. Don't know when they'll turn. Wireless looks like it is turning now, led by Qualcomm and Nokia. Optics should follow, quickly. Lindy didn't go in to great detail to explain his statement, but on balance, I agree with him more than you relative to this particular subject. - Eric -

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (36044)	12/6/2000 8:47:23 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 54805

G&K's I bought this week that were beaten down the most will most probably be the best performers over the next year. Mike, I had two things wrong with my comment. 1) I should have been more explicit 2) I should not have invoked your name. What I meant to say was that I thought that companies such as Cisco and Intel possibly had a better chance of large gains this next 12 months than Siebel and Network Appliance, since they were working off of smaller ratios. It was a passing comment, with no great amount of analysis behind it.