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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (80919)	12/7/2000 11:23:05 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

o/t ronald clark re: the "Call" on gold Ron your index comparsion was a pre-determined manipulation by starting at the prior cyclical top for the OSX. Any cyclical sector would be a vast underperformer if you start the comparison from its prior cycle top ? Your premis and more importantly; your conclusions were invalid - period. The OSX is a very volatile commodity oriented "Cyclical". A significant amount of posters here have been here since the dark days of October 1998 and made the "Big & Easy" money; as the 2nd wave of posters here did as well; who arrived in the spring of 1999 and caught that major breakout leg. Anyone who has been here in the Oilpatch prior to March of this year - made Big money & vastly outperfomed virtually any other sector in the market. Ron; I never understood your original point then & still don't - as you have no point; just an invalid & pointless observation and equally invalid & pointless conclusion from it. Now; as far as your question of: << "Why then do you tout various gold share percentage increases based on multi-decade lows ? What has been the percentage increase in these shares since you started singing their praise ? >> Ron; simple answer. Go back & check my posts to where I started singing their praises. It's been only over the last couple of months. Roebear and I and a few others "occassionally" mentioned some individual gold stock trading opps back in April/May ? mainly AEM if I recall - and there were some nice trading volatility with very nice little pops in the XAU this year. I began accumulating and building a "portfolio weighted" position in the Gold's only during the last few months and the keywords are "began, building & accumulating" - as I tried to explain when I posted about my "plan" . No one tried to make any to the exact "tic" type of portfolio call and why would/should one - if their goal is to accumulate and build a portfolio weighted position at what they view as a historic low. You ankle-biting critic's amaze me... Was my first post about Gold supposed to be 90 seconds before the exact tic that the XAU index bottomed ? Is a trader supposed to call the exact tic bottom & top to enter & exit ? - and more importantly; speaking to that critical mindset; I guess we are assumed to have to jump in with both feet & on JQP-esque Max Margin basis; the minute we first "Begin" to talk about accumulating value & opportunity into a low that is forming...? I think my "call" on building a portfolio-weighted position in the XAU & Golds was pretty damn good and I think my explanation as to how "I" was going to do it; was equally as simplistic. I began "accumulating" at XAU 50ish; right where we are now - but as per my "PLAN" that I tried to explain in a pretty simple manner; - no one makes complete & total top & bottom calls consistantly - no one can; it's impossible. I think I've talked about using "stops" as much as anyone. Yes; I did try to catch NEM a bit early; but used stops - I did not and never have; just sat like a "deer in headlights" and rode moves all the way down. - never have & never will. But, more importantly; no one with any sense throws 100% portfolio moves in & out on single moment trades; or goes "max margin" on the click of a mouse; or at least they don't in reality & live to talk about it. The key is to begin selling & profit taking into tops and to begin buying & accumulating - building positions into bottoms. If one accumulated & built a portfolio position in Golds by "averaging in" as one should allways do;over the last 3 months - they hopefully bought as much as XAU 41 as they did at XAU 51. We have the small caps up 30-60% up from the bottoms; with the big Cap XAU components not quite near where they were when we begain buying; but trending up and they've certainly presented some nice volatility for trading and rotation opps within the broader move here. I'm up about a net 10% on the Golds - about a XAU 44ish cost basis and more importantly have a very nice cost basis here on my small caps; where I am now over-weighted vs the large caps. I flipped the breakout leaders NEM HM etc for a rotation opportunity I saw in the laggard small caps - just as they broke out big the last few days... nothing new; merely the same thing that worked so well in the Oilpatch. The big cap index components often lead the breakout; you can take profits on their lead & rotate the $ back into the smaller cap laggards - which I did, catching in essence - a double move within one single sector move; as they back & fill. We also got the same opportunity with the Silver Sector - as it has lagged the Gold/XAU move here. I bought SIL in the mid $8's & it's a great LongTerm hold from there - I don't plan on selling before the $12's at a minimum and I am still buying PAAS here - strongly; adding more of a Silver Sector weighting at $2 3/4ish PAAS - a super buy there. The XAU chart to me is a thing of beauty here; it was holding & bouncing around XAU 50 most of this fall - when we began talking about Gold on a portfolio weighted basis and began accumulating a weighted portfolio position in it. It has formed a classic and very accumable slow, rounded cup bottom - including a brief double bottom off XAU 41/42. I'm still looking to add Gold's here; but only on weakness & if we re-test that low XAU 40 range; or individual stocks on an individual story basis. If the Euro continues to strengthen as I think it will and if the US Dollar continues to weaken as I think it will; I hope to end up with about a 65%ish portfolio weighting in Golds/PM's. This is not a difficult concept to grasp Ron; once again, all one needs to do to be very successfull & to vastly outperform the market is to be "buying" into bottoms and "selling" into tops. You don't have to call exact tic tops, or bottoms - just be selling into tops & accumulating into bottoms - nothing more complex than that. Since I pulled most of my funds out of the market in August; I think I caught & sold into the uptrend and since I've been accumulating the Gold's on a portfolio weighted basis into the drop from XAU 50 down to XAU 40; I'd say I accomplished what I wanted to do there as well - buying into & establishing a portfolio weighting at the alltime XAU Index low and indiviual shareprice low's & most importantly - at their alltime low valuation multiples on a reserve & ounces of production per shareprice $ basis. Did I catch the exact index tic at the top for the OSX, or the bottom for the XAU ? - No; allthough I did accumulate very heavilly at the XAU 42 range and will significantly add there again - if the Euro / US Dollar trends continue. Ron - pull up a 2 year, 5 year, or 15 year XAU chart and tell me technically, or fundamentally how accumulating and building a Gold weighted position in the XAU from 50 to 40 over the last quarter/ 3 months; is anything other than catching a pretty historically narrow window - literally the alltime low "quarter" within the last 15 years of the XAU's history. Ron; if anyone can pick an "entry point" to begin building a portfolio weighted position at the lowest single "quarter" (3 month window) of the last 15 years of an Index's performance - you ought to be kissing their ass and not biting their ankles ~ Got that Ron ? - back to the bench chihuahua breath (VBG). Ciao