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To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (9095)	12/6/2000 8:39:23 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Geoffrey, right - industry forecasts can be wide off the mark. Analysts can be wrong. Company officials can change forecasts instantly. Just one little question: how come Mr Market always knows? Since Mr Market determines money flow for me, he's always right by definition. :) Gottfried

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (9095)	12/6/2000 10:06:46 PM
From: WTSherman	Respond to of 10921

<I've got to the point where I don't put much credence to these industry estimates. < With the macro economic situation as murky as it is, I don't think any company's projections for the next year mean much at all. If a rapid decline in the overall economy is underway all the projections will go out the window very fast...

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (9095)	12/6/2000 10:55:03 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

GTW, what are those forecasters smoking? I'd like to have some. I think that the industry will be lucky to ship $45 B next year (less by a little than this year. Not only does "Mr. Market" says that, but the macro-economic indicators point to a slow down in new fabs and push outs. In the "strongest market, Taiwan, we already know of one "push out" of 12" fabs. In Korea, it will take some time before HEI can raise ($1.5 B) to build a 12" fab. More importantly, I still have not heard from the wafer makers on their installation of capacity for the 10 or so 12" wafer fabs coming on line in the next 18 months. I think that shortage of wafers will cause delay in the deployment of new fabs. When you match this to slowing demand from both the PC sector and the wireless telephony sector, you get a slow down due to peak rate of increase in capacity recently (last quarter was 7% or so, mostly by improvement in processes.) The next BTB figures will be interesting to look at. Zeev