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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JoeinIowa who wrote (22700)	12/6/2000 11:59:40 PM
From: Ken W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Joe: OPLK is the target for tomorrow then. Any move to 20ish or above will bring it on. 207.61.23.98 Ken

To: JoeinIowa who wrote (22700)	12/7/2000 7:38:16 AM
From: JoeinIowa	Respond to of 29382

Heads Up! Preannouncement Season Coming a Little Early This Quarter By Eric Gillin Staff Reporter 12/6/00 11:21 AM ET 'Tis the season to be jolly, for sure, but 'tis not quite the season for earnings warnings. Yet, according to a report released Tuesday morning by Joseph Kalinowski, I/B/E/S' equity strategist, over 300 companies have already preannounced for the fourth quarter, even though typically the fourth-quarter preannouncement season doesn't begin until mid-December. Of the preannouncements, 58% were negative, 15.6% were positive and 26.4% were comfortable with estimates. "Public guidance has increased significantly in the last few months," he says, noting that this will be the busiest confession season since the company started to collect data in 1996. This quarter's figure of 307 preannouncements looms larger if you consider that during the year-ago quarter, there were only 233 announcements. And again, the season hasn't even started yet. So, why now? "We're coming out of a lot of momentum," Kalinowski said, referring to the rapid earnings growth in 1999 and in the first half of 2000, "and with that positive surprise, many analysts ratcheted up their estimates. The slowdown might have taken the analysts by surprise." Kalinowski said another factor was the effect of regulation FD, which was enacted in October. According to the regulation, companies must publicly disseminate information that it gives to analysts, thus resulting in full disclosure and more announcing. "Regulation FD has increased sensitivity about talking by companies," agrees Richard Cripps, chief market strategist with Legg Mason, "and it's probably caused an increase in announcements." He believes that regulation FD, designed to help alleviate concerns over selective disclosure, has made companies more cautious about their earnings picture. Whereas companies previously talked down, or up, their analysts quietly, guidance has now become a more public thing. "It has some secondary issues, in that it causes management to be more cautious about their outlook going forward," says Cripps. "They don't want to be accused of providing an outlook that they can't exceed."