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To: AllansAlias who wrote (44967)	12/7/2000 10:58:30 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I'm wondering if the sellers are waiting for the "Bush-Pop" today before hitting the market with full force. if I was a seller (and I am) why wouldn't I wait for the lemmings to pile in on the likely pro-Bush news. Edit-It looks like some may not be waiting

To: AllansAlias who wrote (44967)	12/7/2000 11:17:16 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

up or down, chart-boy?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (44967)	12/7/2000 11:34:32 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I've been thinking a lot about whether this is a smaller (<=4 weeks) or larger (<=4 months) corrective wave, ala Nikkei. You've got me leaning back toward the shorter correction, with a little more down before the longer bear rally. A few reasons: first, I think 3000-3100 provides rock-solid resistance at this point. The long-term trendline and horizontal resistance there are potent forces. As you pointed out, we almost got there on our crash (up) day. So, I don't see much headroom for an extended rally. Second, you pointed out the strength in the DJIA and XMI. I think we may be setting up for another rotation, where the financials, with declining earnings and increasing doubtful accounts, start getting sold in favor of the "beaten down" techs. And while that would provide relative strength for the techs, I don't think it permits them significant upside. It's amazing how the old economy stocks turned right when you said they had to, as if on cue. Any more strength and I'd question it, but come on - does anyone really think the tech bubble can burst without the DJIA bubble coming undone, given that a recession is clearly brewing? Third, any reasonable tech names have already skyrocketed on short-covering. It's much harder to make a bullish case for JNPR at 150 in the face of deteriorating fundamentals than it was to make a momentum case for it over 200. Finally, looking at Nikkei, it spent a long time going nowhere before it finally made up its mind to rally a little, and then fall to pieces. So if you think we're still Nikkei's evil twin, you've either set up for capitulation, or you've set up a trading range. And a trading range was just built for, well, traders, like us. So fade rallies, take profits when you find them, and be watching for signs that the trading range might be failing. Oh, and I think I'm still going to respect the Santa Claus rally/January effect. The absence of tax-loss selling on some issues this year should have a very positive effect, and it always provides extraordinary volatility in individual issues. BC