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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandeep who wrote (53925)	12/7/2000 7:05:48 PM
From: TTOSBT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Re: ""Maybe MSFT will miss by a lot or beat the original estimates. I think nobody KNOWS for sure at this time and everybody is afraid. " san you have had the most logical post this past month on MSFT. I am no longer worried, your tone has slightly changed from nervous to sensible. IMO MSFT has an advantage 1) An agressive price cutting in the pc sector to clear out the bulk in the channel is under way. 2) The TV news on MSFT is overly negative -not factoring in price slashing by INTC & box makers. 3) Election still in Bush favor. 4) Greenspan will almost certainly cut by Dec 19. 5) W2K sales will hopefully make up for small lost in investment and pc if any. TTOSBT

To: sandeep who wrote (53925)	12/8/2000 1:14:41 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Nobody believes this any more. Q4 is not done and this research is too early, by the same token, so is this ratings cut by Sherlund. He may be right or he may be wrong in either direction. Maybe MSFT will miss by a lot or beat the original estimates. I think nobody KNOWS for sure at this time and everybody is afraid. I think MSFT will warn if they see a high probability of missing revenue and eps targets. Even if they were to small misses, it is better to lower the bar now instead of disappoint the street in January. I bet the stock will do better if they do it now. NO chance of MSFT missing by a lot unless they warn tomorrow or very early next week. I am sure they know that at this time, the stock will be spared from a steep decline if they just come clean. Just look at LSI, INTC, MOT, ALTR, XLNX. It is worth cutting forecasts for this and next quarter and possibly for the year. Stock won't decline on this. Lower the bar. At some point, when things pick up, start suprising on the upside...because that is what gets stocks moving not meeting estimates. At the very least MSFT has to provide an official progress report on the quarter (sort of like ALTR and XLNX regularly). Without this, the stock may keep drifting sideways or lower for a while. The word is simply....UNCERTAINTY. They have to address it ASAP. I think they are now aware of this!