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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (89357)	12/7/2000 12:56:25 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

>> when some upstart like me starts suggesting a stock is overpriced, you wince. I wince more when one of my stocks tank, and upstarts like you can buy it on the cheap <lol>. >> the a proper entry point can do wonders for one's portfolio Sure, but how do you know? Take a peek at Cisco's graph: finance.yahoo.com There were a HUGE drop in 1994, and someone who bought at the highs would have been devastated if they were investing with a short term window. But anyone who bought at any time in 1994 and held as briefly as 24 months would have realized an incredible return. Imho, deciding when to sell has much more importance than deciding when to buy. >> The same goes for NTAP. I don't know what price you felt was appropriate for the stock, but it seems to me an entry at in the sub $50 range was preferable to a $100 price. If we've judged the importance of ntap's innovation and the durability of it accurately, $100 will seem like a bargain basement price by 2002. Consider that a mere 16 months ago, I bought my starter position at 13 3/16. >> I also feel it is important to learn from our experience with QCOM this past year. What I've learned is that 7 months is too short a time line to measure the viability of an investment and predict its potential for returns over the long haul. >> watching one's portfolio get creamed AGAIN in the same year... The best solution is not to watch. Seriously, I think most of us spend too much time anguishing over daily/weekly/monthly price fluctuations. >> I think it prudent to consider planning exit strategies. The other lesson I've learned this year is that portfolio management is every bit as important as stock picking. If you/I had practiced some rational degree of diversification, the volatility in Q's pricer would have been much easier to bear. uf

To: waverider who wrote (89357)	12/7/2000 1:16:10 PM
From: ratan lal	Respond to of 152472

DH I think the topic of valuation would be very helpful as opposed to just stock price. And that's exactly where the problem lies. VALUATION. it has become such an unrecognizable beast that one never knows at what valuation one should consider a stock worth the price. Generally in an up market, growth stocks, even those with high valuations, get bid up. Conversely the asme stocks get proportionally beaten down in a down market. Since high valaution stocks like QCOM, NTAP etc. are the ones generally followed in this thread, it would make sense to 'try' and figure out the direction and ultimately the bottom of the market from where it will move up. Of course legging in near teh bottom would also make sense since it is impossible to catch the bottom every time. The other item worth considering is the possibility of greater growth on the horizon which would permit higher valuation. In the case of QCOM the deals with China and TXN seem to provide a clue for greater growth. But we have seen these in the past and things have changed so many times that trusting the chinese to follow thru on their commitments is far from certain. And if there is no follow thur then I have seen posts on this thread claiming that China was not figured into the price of QCOM. Of course other investors had figures China into the price and they start selling and QCOM starts going downhill. Now with China back in the picture again, the price has started climbing. However from what I have been able to read, it doesnt look like QCOM will genertae any revenue for a year and will in fact be spending money to set up infrastructure in China. And we know one year is a long time for the chinese to change their mind 4 times over. So for now I am going to stick to what I consider 'low valaution' stocks and will probably get into higher valued stocks once it is clear that the market is out of a downtrend and uncertainty maybe by the end of Q1 2001.