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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (80979)	12/7/2000 2:12:46 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

jim p - I'd have to admit RIG/FLC here surprises me... Either it's one of the cheapest LT re-entry opp's in the patch; or deepwater activity is not even close to positive dayrate rollover levels... I'd have to think RIG is a $60 stock if this is just a - "pause that refreshes" and the boom/oilpatch expansion cycle still has legs left. Someone has to step in on RIG here soon... has to; if RIG continue's to languish... that would disturb me. Maybe just word out that a big seller isn't done & institutions aren't helping them... just waiting. I think RIG will pop 6-8 points real soon here; but if it doesn't - that's not good... Deepwater & semi-sub leveraged drillers like RIG/FLC ATW & DO - just may be "the" outperfomer subsector here... ATW is a double+ just to May 1999 early cycle highs... so; were they that wrong then, or are they that wrong here & now; on ATW ? ... I'm betting the later. Lots of value - no brainers and lots of "doubles" - "IF" this is indeed just a pause that refreshes & the boom/expansion cycle continues. Doublers: If I had to pick 12 stocks (hey; here's a good contest idea (VBG) you know I love contests... pick 12 stocks that are the best "Double" candidates if/when the OSX hits new highs... ATW (maybe RDC & MRL; RIG close) KEG PKD FGH (yes Freide) WG MDR GLBL UFAB NR SCSWF PGO OII I see few E&P "doublers" - maybe some micro's - a MEXP etc. But; the crude leveraged names are the buys if the cycle expands thru 2002 imo, VPI OIL and NEV - probably not doublers; but 50% ish upside imo. NEV has lower priced heavy oil & higher costs; but $6.85-$7 cfps (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/001109/tx_nuevo_c.html) potential at $25 crude as their bad hedges come off - that's only 2 x cfps here and NEV was a $60 stock in the 97-98 cycle - it could be a doubler if $25-$30 crude sticks as they will be an individual "Story" stock as their hedges come off and they've got some drillbit upside exposure as well... still holding my $29/$30 TLM - about the only E&P I'm still holding of "any" signifcant size. Oil Drillers on CNBC mentioned just now as one of the top sectors for the day... well; that's a small positive... I'm still not tempted to be more than 30-50% in Oils here and then with tight stops; but if crude shows strength here at $28ish+ we should be bottomed here imo.