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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nilesh Parikh who wrote (87601)	12/7/2000 1:50:32 PM
From: Bosco	Respond to of 97611

Hi Nilesh - my last post said most of the thing. But let's use the billion dollar buy back as an example. Obviously, most of the repurchasing is not a scheduled event, and most analysts do disregard this sort of tax free dividend. However, if this has teeth, CPQ can explain the impact of this buyback etc etc. Ultimately, it is business fundamentals that is the crucial thing. I certainly don't want the co to inflat any expectation. I actually prefer the company to manage expectation easily reachable. OTOH, I certainly don't think comparing AAPL and CPQ are valid. I would not want to badmouth AAPL, but CPQ can certainly high light how disconnect these 2 mkts are best, Bosco

To: Nilesh Parikh who wrote (87601)	12/7/2000 2:01:06 PM
From: Andreas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Nilesh Parikh; First, we may as well forget about the so-called 1 billion buy-back. I'll be surprised, given past experience, if anywhere near 1 billion dollars is actually spent. Furthermore, what better time to implement the buyback than yesterday and today? And was it? Judging from the stock's behavior (dropping 4 bucks) I seriously doubt it. Don't forget 1 billion dollars equates to about 50,000,000 shares!!! Even a minimal (say 15%) implementation would have absorbed 7,500,000 shares of yesterday's volume. Additional demand yesterday to the tune of 7.5 million shares would probably have caused the price of cpq to go up, rather than dropping by $4 or more!! In other words, the buy-back is baloney, unless it is actually implemented. And so far, it doesn't appear that it has. And if management didn't take advantage of yesterday and today to buy back stock then imo, they never will!!! In conclusion, the announcement of buybacks being authorized is just window dressing designed to allow form rather than substance to mitigate a free-fall of one's stock. End of story. Second, I agree that IF cpq expects a shortfall they should come out now rather than later. However, imo, MC would not have been so certain about Q4 in prior reiterations if there was any reasonable likelihood that a warning may later be required. Comparisons between aapl and cpq or gtw and cpq are ridiculous! cpq only derives 19% of its revenue from consumer p.c.s In fact, imo, cpq should be compared more closely to sunmicrosystems than to a so-called competing box-maker, for obvious reasons. Where would cpq's stock price be if it enjoyed the same p/e as sunw? C'est la vie!

To: Nilesh Parikh who wrote (87601)	12/7/2000 2:15:19 PM
From: QuentR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

IMHO we are right. Who cares if the analysts and market is wrong, sooner or later Compaq will rebound. In light of the presidential crisis and the sector warnings, there is not going to be much rebound in the stock now(we seem to be the only ones that know that Compaq is much more than a box maker and doesn’t even belong in with the box makers). Let it sink to the lowest point and buy buy buy! And let Compaq buy too. Happy Jan 26th! IMHO, 40+++ by 4thQ Earnings! Analysts will probably not find the report robust for the 1stQ and we will retreat to 35 during the next week.