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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jcky who wrote (22688)	12/7/2000 3:50:28 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

jcky....where, perhaps, we disagree... The dollar's strength is always on a relative basis (not within some "absolute" vaccuum.......always relative to the euro and yen (and, in the old days, gold)....although the U.S economy went from 8% to less than 3% growth, the dollar actually strengthed...why? Because the Euro and Yen are so lame, no one wants/wanted to hold them. Although some are looking for a little stronger Euro, no/few experts believe this is because the fundamentals in Europe are improving at some extroadinary way...rather, the Euro is so beat up, even dogs have their bounces...everything I've read says that the ECB is going to cut rates along with the Fed, and we all know that growth in Europe is very weak right now (due to higher dependence on oil)..with the future rate cuts in the near future, it will be hard for the Euro to get even to 95, and, if it does, to stay there... For the foreseeable future, I don't see anything but a normal, almost needed adjustment down in the dollar...I don't think you need to worry about massive capital outflow here....The Naz has been beaten to death, and most of the "scared money" is gone....Given how lame the European market look, some of that may even return....Because of their higher dependence of oil/GDP, I think it'll take longer for those economies to recover/steady from the oil shock. Where I do (heartily) agree with you: If Europe or Japan would ever REALLY get their acts together (either one), and challenge the dollar's soveignity, I'd agree with you that would be really bad for the markets here...BUT, that would take leadership with a lot of backbone, and none of the old guard in Europe (and especially Japan) seem willing/able to do that.......it will take a new generation of new leaders fighting the old system, every tooth and nail.....I see it as mostly a cultural thing.....and most cultures only change very slowly at all....Look at a country like Italy, that watches the southern half get poorer and poorer..and nothing is ever done....folks living there (and I am not making a value judgement; Many are probably happier than those in the "wealthy" U.S.) will likely never change, as they driver older and older autos, live in older and older buildings, etc.. Embracing change is largely an American concept....it may not make a more happy or stable country, but it sure does help our economy and currency...