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To: WTSherman who wrote (121130)	12/7/2000 5:07:43 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

WTSherman,<<<The estimate I used for current replacement cycles of 42-48 months is my own perception based upon working with a large number of different company's.>>> That is pretty close to my own observations of about 60 months. But, that is not the problem. Apple's short fall was not because people weren't replacing their Apples. They weren't buying Apples in the first place for any new applications. <<<in the past three or four years a huge number of mainframe apps have been replaced by C/S apps. Y2K paranoia accelerated this transition dramatically.>>> Much more effort was put into remediating existing programs, so that existing programs could continue to operate. These programs still have to be replaced. <<<I'm not sure what you are saying here at all. There is plenty of app development or improvement on the IT plate, for sure. But, new apps have not been the driving force behind desktop replacements, ever more bloated and complex desktop software has been.>>> The task to increase productivity has not scratched the surface. Look at health care. Look in the offices of your local doctor. Look at the hospitals. Look at the forms that you have to fill out over and over again for prescriptions, health insurance, hospital, and HMO interface. Look at education. Do you really think that computer efficiency has hit the education establishment. Look at your local and federal government. How much money do you think is still needed just to handle the paper work. Look at voter registration and the voting process. Do you know of any establishment where they are pleased and satisfied with the current level of automation. You write as if everything has been automated and that we are just sitting around for them to replace existing applications with a slightly newer and more powerful computer change over. Take another look around you. Yes, we may have hit a self induced recession, but that is only going to exacerebate pent up demand when recession worries abate. Okay, so it May take a year or 2. Recessions come and go. That is economic reality. But, the automation process is in the very early stages of development. Regards, Mary

To: WTSherman who wrote (121130)	12/8/2000 1:35:01 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

WT, 60 months? Not even close. That would mean that on average the the standard PC of 1993(a 486DX @100 Mhz, with 200MB HHD and 16MB of RAM) wasn't replaced until 1998???? By 1998 you couldn't even give these machines away to schools or charities by 1998. The 36 month cycle is from a Gartner Fortune 500 survey of IT directors that was done in 1998. The estimate I used for current replacement cycles of 42-48 months is my own perception based upon working with a large number of different company's. I think Mary is closer to the truth than you are. There are still a number of PCs out there running DOS, or in other text only OS. There are still some 486s (not too many) bus a significant number of low end Pentium machines. If you go to average smaller retail store, they are running PC based POS (Point of Sale) software that is text based. The text based dumb terminals have almost completely disappeared, but the text base PCs, running either terminal software or normal PC DOS software are still out there in force. Of course this is the tail end of the upgrade cycle, but it is still there. Joe

To: WTSherman who wrote (121130)	12/8/2000 3:37:34 PM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

WT & Mary, too: Well articulated exchanges of opinion. Bravo. And to sum it up; you're both correct. Mary with her "always a need for a faster processor" mantra, and WT with your "lengthening product replacement cycles" chant. The reality is the business world will always have a need for more speed, be it in the form of routers, servers, employee PC's and laptops, or this new emerging force, the PDA. And this need will be driven not only by new software applications yet to be envisioned (thinking outwards to one such mundane application as possible corporate applications which will run on wireless internet connections to remote employees, service arms, etc.); but also in the never-ending tweaking/upgrading/etc. all corporate IT departments routinely experience (and for which there will always be work). So more speed and new machines will always be a driving force. BUT....and this is a big one from my point of view, in terms of determining demand cycles....well...I think that 'ol acronym, Y2K, has blown smoke up many market analysts spreadsheets, heh! That is....as Y2K approached almost everyone in the world was freaking and trying any number of ways to head off disaster. Typically this meant wholesale upgrades of software, equipment, etc.. Demand, as a consequence, did a moon shot. Unfortunately, it's entirely probable the market mistook this demand for a indication of "routine" demand, rather than what it was; a one time event. So despite the "need for speed," going forward equipment replacements/upgrades/etc. must be balanced against corporate "bean counting" methodologies, which are the ultimate arbiter of replacement demand. And these methodologies are now unconstrained by Y2K fears. Therefore, to use the process of the "logical middle" between your twin arguments, my WAG is for a lengthening of the replacement cycle, too, with most of the corporate world not looking to do any wholesale replacement of what now amounts to brand new "stuff" for at least 3-4 years (and I use my own corporation as a reference point in this regard). Bottom line? Anticipate continued softening of demand. (Hell, the entire PC-styled supply chain has made that comment abundantly obvious hasn't it?) And going forward, although I think a fair percentage of the tech world has been thrown out the window like that proverbial baby with the bath water still, forward looking analysts will need to take into consideration the demand curve leading up to Y2K. It was an anomalous period. All data associated with it will needed to be discounted accordingly when they conduct their soothsaying sessions. ;-) All imho, of course. John~

To: WTSherman who wrote (121130)	12/9/2000 4:53:40 AM
From: Jimbo	Respond to of 186894

In my corporate environment I would venture that the replacement cycle is around the 42-48 month cycle mentioned. I agree about the move to C/S, we are moving from legacy mainframe apps to C/S apps. As a result we have come full circle in terms of the client PC being nothing more than a "dumb terminal". In the future, with Microsoft's .Net initiative you are going to see the use of "Web Services", applications like Word, Excel will be leased from Microsoft and not reside on the client but on the corporate server. I suspect to that the demands for disk space will become more centralized (than they are now). Don't know if I've added anything to what's been said -- but more confirming your points.