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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (40574)	12/7/2000 3:34:03 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Great Chart, Orders at the top Price is at the bottom Go Figure Stan

To: Gottfried who wrote (40574)	12/11/2000 12:24:28 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Thanks very much for the chart. I will try to post more, but want to make sure I am contributing to the thread with each post. Some comments from your chart: The stock tends to decline in advance of order decreases, which sort of implies that orders are about to go down. This corresponds with the earnings warnings we have seen at chip companies such as Intel. If you look at a plot of AMAT vs. the Nasdaq, one can see that the direction of the overall technology market has an effect on the stock price as well, which is to be expected of course. From your chart, it seems the stock seems to go down for about 6 months or so after orders start to decrease. But maybe this time it will not go down a lot more from its recent low since it was perhaps pulled down extra hard by the crash in the Nasdaq. By the way, as of about May 22, the Nasdaq crash from top to bottom was the worst since July 1976 (Ref. Wall Street Journal Article back in May), and we were a lot lower just a week or two ago. I have am keeping track of the ratio of my portfolio net worth to AMAT stock price. If this ratio becomes a fair amount higher after the first of the year, I may sell most of my other positions and buy AMAT, with the hope that 115 is reached within 1 to 2 years. AMAT is already my largest holding, I was adding to it in the 40's. It can be very risky of course to put too much in one stock, but I think AMAT is a very solid stock to own, and likely to recover in this time period. Your posts, and those of others on this thread are a great help to me right now, as I consider this shift of assets after the start of the new year. I especially appreciate any comments or analysis on the question of if and when the stock recovers to its high of 115. Right now my biggest concern is that there is something about the company or the business that I don't understand which makes an investment in AMAT less desirable. If I don't come up with a good reason for not jumping in by Jan. 1st and this ratio looks real good at that time or in the months following that, then "Geronimo!", as they say. Regards, John