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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (80997)	12/7/2000 6:31:03 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 95453

Seems right. A rally in tech despite warnings and some pretty horrible numbers from INTC (IBM is next, BTW) will be sustained only if the tech capex and domestic growth resume an upward slope within the next quarter. Not happening. Otherwise, its a false start, the type that bear markets are full of, as investors underestimate the time for recovery just as they overestimated techs immunity to slowing domestic growth. The OSX at this point is mysterious. Not in the layup range certainly. Simmons recent article about avoiding boom and bust cycles in the energy sector is food for thought. After all, it was the "boom" that made the OSX ramp and the bust that made it so willing to give at just the whiff of industry downturn. If the boom goes, so will the momentum players and the type of runs can be compared to the SOX (the other home for the momentum crowd).

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (80997)	12/7/2000 6:42:45 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Jim, you could be entirely right about tech in the short term. I noticed MOT did a big volume reversal today. Good sign. Still, I think the real bottom comes in the heart of the PC liquidation I see coming after Christmas. When they stop going down during that phase I think a true tech bottom will be at hand. Only then do I see a truly broad based stock market rally that is sustainable. BTW Time Magazine will probably run a cover story on "The Death Of The PC." or some such hooey. ;o} Also the fed will have been well into the rate reductions - but the news will be God awful and retail investors will be puking tech stocks, saying "Never Again". <VBG> I think we may be about 2/3 of the way through that process. But that is just my own personal WAG. BTW I salute Slidah Mon on his "Friends don't let friends buy tech" post of months ago. I also congratulate him on his warnings on the burgeoning bad debt problems faced by the banking industry. Both themes were central in inspiring some independent research and taking a very conservative approach to equity investing on my part. I've avoided a whole pile of unnecessary headaches as a result. BTW Part 2: Intraday today MOT gave back ALL of the '99 - '00 bubble gains - ALL OF IT. Kinda sobering. Don't anybody EVER tell me semi's ain't cyclical! <GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG> ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!