Storm Over Election Casts Cloud on Prospects of the Younger Bush
By RICHARD L. BERKE
ALLAHASSEE,
Fla., Dec. 5 —
Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida was once such a political smash that fans would mob him at events, begging for autographs. Democrats predicted that he would coast to re-election in 2002. And Republicans thought their governor's influence would only be enhanced if his older brother, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas, reached the White House. They even speculated that Jeb Bush would reward his key supporters by sending them to Washington to collect presidential appointments.
That was before Nov. 7.
Now, more than any other politician in America except the two
nominees themselves, Jeb Bush finds himself bruised by this
presidential election despite his best efforts not to be drawn into
the vortex early on.
Republicans say they are bracing for a bloody political brawl
over the next two years because Democrats in Florida now
consider Mr. Bush vulnerable and have begun plotting to oust
him in 2002.
Beyond Florida, Mr. Bush, of course, is no longer talked about as
a likely future president. And for Mr. Bush to even dream of
moving up, he first has to contend with the political firestorm
surrounding him at home.
"In my community, if you just mention Jeb Bush's name, you get
scowls on people's faces," said State Representative Christopher
L. Smith, a Democrat from Fort Lauderdale who endorsed Mr.
Bush in 1998 and who has since turned on him.
Aside from the partisan complaints, Democrats and Republicans
alike now seem worried that Florida has become a laughing
stock, with commentators on television chat shows endlessly
deriding the state as "Flori-duh."
Plenty of the anger and plenty of the disappointment seems
directed at the Florida governor himself.
"He hurts like a brother seeing the trials of his own flesh and
blood," said Gov. Frank Keating of Oklahoma, who spent the
night in the Governor's Mansion here on Tuesday. "He's got to
be tired. He's got to be stressed. There's a sense of frustration
and disquiet as a result of 28 days of uncertainty. This is his
brother, whose potential presidency hangs in the balance. There
is a flesh and blood investment here."
Aside from the personal aspects, the political toll for Mr. Bush is
significant. Republicans accuse him of not being sufficiently
energetic in helping his brother win Florida outright over Vice
President Al Gore. Democrats accuse him of rigging the process
to get his brother elected, whether acting on his own or through
political allies including Katherine Harris, the secretary of state,
Tom Feeney, the House speaker, and John McKay, the Senate
president.
The ferment among Democrats may peak on Friday, when the
Florida Legislature is scheduled to meet in special session to
consider appointing presidential electors who would be Bush
supporters. Some Democrats say the whole spectacle was
orchestrated by Jeb Bush.
"I'm expecting a holy war in Florida in 2002," said Representative
Joe Scarborough, a Republican from Pensacola. "And Jeb's the
hot button that Democrats are going to be pushing over the next
four years, claiming that W.'s brother helped him win the
presidency because he was governor of Florida."
But Mr. Scarborough said that Republicans, in turn, were just as
energized. "Republicans will line up behind Jeb regardless of
whether they thought he should have done more, or less, during
the campaign," he said, "because things have degenerated to an
`us versus them' scenario."
Mr. Bush's predicament
is not just in Florida.
Asked whether Mr. Bush
had a future in national
politics, Gov. Bob Taft of
Ohio, a Republican,
replied, "That's a tough
one. I'm sure he's not
thinking about that now."
It is extremely premature,
certainly, to write Jeb
Bush's political obituary.
The latest polls show that
he remains relatively
popular. The Democrats
have yet to settle on a
candidate to challenge
him in 2002. And if
George W. Bush does
become president, he
could help his brother win
favor by lavishing
attention on this state.
While he is largely staying clear of the news media, outwardly, at
least, Jeb Bush is trying mightily to survive the presidential
morass. At a dinner with newly elected legislators here on
Tuesday, where he appeared with Governor Keating, Mr. Bush
gamely joked about the interminable campaign.
Still, many Republicans say they are unnerved not only by the
prospect of a backlash if Mr. Bush becomes president, but by the
fact that vital Democratic constituencies like blacks and Jews
turned out in huge numbers for Mr. Gore. Many Democrats say
that showing was not so much borne out of affection for the vice
president but out of anger at Jeb Bush, particularly among
minorities.
"We had record turnout in minority districts such as mine," Mr.
Smith, the state representative, said. "I would say 40 percent of it
was for Gore and 60 percent against Bush — and most of that
was against Jeb Bush."
Mr. Smith said that while he disapproved of Mr. Bush's handling
of the post-election developments, he gave up on the governor
out of disdain for his One Florida initiative. Mr. Bush proposed
that a year ago to end racial preferences in university admissions
and some public contracts. It was intended to head off an even
more controversial ballot measure, but instead stirred up passions
among African-Americans.
Now, minorities may be even more emboldened because they
think the Republicans tried to stop them from voting in the
presidential election.
"I'm not one of those conspiracy theorists who says this election
is Jeb's fault," Mr. Smith said. "But people are looking for
someone to pin this on — and he's the perfect target."
One high-level Democratic Party operative here from
Washington said he could already envision the mass mailing his
party could send out to galvanize Democrats in 2002: "You say in
a piece of mail, `How can you vote for Jeb Bush, who
disenfranchised your vote for Al Gore and Joe Lieberman last
time?' "
Asked about such Democratic warnings, Richard Bond, a former
Republican national chairman who is close to the Bush family,
said, "If Democrats are trying to make some cause out of Jeb
Bush for trying to win the presidency for his brother, my
message would be, `Bring it on, baby,' because the Florida
Republican Party is energized like I've never seen."
The notion of Mr. Bush as the target is a particularly unexpected
turn because he went out of his way to avoid being visible during
the presidential campaign. He said in an interview last summer
that his emphasis would be on tending to his state. Many other
Republican governors were far more visible in stumping for
George W. Bush.
When asked about his brother's support during the campaign,
George W. Bush joked that he told Jeb "the turkey at
Thanksgiving might be a little chilly if things don't work out." That
remark has led to numerous political cartoons of Jeb dining at the
children's table at Thanksgiving.
In the immediate wake of
the unsettled election, Jeb
Bush again tried to stay
on the sidelines, at least
publicly, by recusing
himself from the state's
Elections Canvassing
Commission.
But more than a week
ago he thrust himself into
the fray and endorsed
plans by Republican
legislators to name a set
of electors. In making
that high-profile move,
Mr. Bush seemed to
invite his detractors to
say he was unduly trying
to help his brother; some
Republicans surmised
that Mr. Bush decided to
curry favor with party
loyalists whose support he needs in 2002 — and, of course, to
help his brother.
"Jeb has been temperate in his response," said Ken Connor, a
lawyer here who Mr. Bush defeated in the 1994 Republican
primary for governor and who was just named president of a
conservative group, the Family Research Council.
"He's shown remarkable restraint," Mr. Connor said. "But it's
safe to say that Jeb's in for a rough ride for the next two years."
Al Cardenas, the Republican Party chairman in Florida, insisted
that he was not too worried about Mr. Bush because people
should focus on the long term. "In the year 2002, you will have
much less voter turnout, which will significantly favor
Republicans," Mr. Cardenas said. "And you'll have a popular
Republican governor facing re-election."
For better or for worse, Mr. Cardenas added, Jeb Bush's future
was tied to his brother. "If his brother gets elected, that's a new
dynamic," he said. "If his brother does well, or not, that will have
an effect on Jeb."
For all the Democrats' threats against Mr. Bush, most agree, at
least at this early stage, that the most potent challenge would
come from Senator Bob Graham, who has served as governor
before. But it is hardly clear that Mr. Graham wants to be
governor again. Other possible candidates, like Robert A.
Butterworth, the state attorney general, are not viewed by many
Democrats as apt to muster adequate financial and political
support to defeat Mr. Bush, who is highly successful at raising
money.
Mr. Bush's predicament is all the more difficult because he was
the brother who most of his family (including his mother) and
friends thought was the most likely to become president.
But, in a pivotal turn of events, Mr. Bush lost his bid for governor
in 1994 — and George W. won his in Texas, setting the stage for
his presidential drive. Even now, people who are close to both
say that Jeb Bush has a far more impressive command of the
issues.
It was not supposed to be this way. In an interview in his office
here in July, Mr. Bush, an earnest politician who lacks his
brother's back-slapping talents, discussed how he relished staying
clear of the spotlight and preferred the nitty-gritty of policy.
"One of the great things about the job," Jeb Bush said, "is I don't
have to think too much about the politics. I didn't run to be a
politician. I ran to serve."
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