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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (21883)	12/7/2000 7:25:14 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

goutama, here's how I see AMD's situation. 1. Lets assume Intel's revenues are flat. 2. Their non-CPU revenues are supposedly growing at 50% as year (Intel's estimate) 3. So lets assume non-CPU stuff is up 10% q over q to account for the growth rate plus 3% q over q to account for the normal season increase, less than the normal 10%. 4. So non-CPU Intel is up 13%, but that's only 25% of total revenue. 5. CPU revenues are therefore down 4.3%. I expect that the hot server market didn't decline at all, so non-server CPU's were down 6 to 7% q over q. 6. I'm going to assume that the 6-7% decline at Intel in non-server CPU revenues consisted of a 5% ASP decline and a 1% to 2% units decline. When Bryant said that Intel's market share didn't change, he was probably saying that because units were about flat. 7. Someone earlier today posted that PC sales this quarter will be up only a few % from Q3. (Does this include servers? I don't know but assume not.) I assume they are talking about quantity, not $$$. So the total number of CPU's sold Q4 increased by, say 2%. 8. If Intel had -1% to -2% units and 82% market share and then the market grew 2%, we have the following: Company Q3 Q4 ---------- -- -- Intel 82 81.2 (# units, best case for Intel) Intel 82 80.4 (# units, worst case for Intel AMD.. 18 ???? Where the second column has to add up to 102. 9. AMD "units" would have to grow from 18 to a number between (20.8 to 21.6). This is an increase q over q of between 15.5% and 20%. Q3 had 6.9 million units, so Q4 will have between 7.97M and 8.28M units. This would give a market share between 20.4% and 21.2% 10. I don't believe either of the above two possibilities would require AMD to warn, assuming ASP stayed above $80 and flash had an increase greater than 10%. The key assumptions leading to this are: percentage increase in PC's sold Q4 + percentage decrease in Intel's unit CPU sales >= 3%. Petz