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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (21912)	12/7/2000 8:45:49 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

John, <It's got nothing to do with product ramps. It has to do with demand.> I think it has to do with both. <Did AMD add enough flash capacity to make up for significant losses in microprocessor unit and dollar sales?> What makes you think AMD will have significant losses in microprocessor unit and dollar sales? I expect AMD will have gains in units and dollar sales in microprocessors until Q2 2001. Q3 2001 is when I expect things to get tough for AMD. <Intel wouldn't say it, but it sure sounds like unit microprocessor sales are going down.> The odds are Intel's units are flat to down this quarter. And, if you believe the IDC's 40.5M number, the overall units should have gone up. I would be very surprised if AMD does not gain around 2 point in market share this quarter. < I suppose you think that will only influence Intel, AMD will sell all they can build? > I guess you don't read my posts. I have been saying for the last year that AMD has more capacity than it can sell. I have said a couple of times in the last few days it would be tough for AMD to make CPU unit guidance for the quarter. <I've said before on this thread, competition between the two companies is a secondary issue. > I disagree. <Given a relatively competitive marketplace, DEMAND is the only thing that really matters. > It is not a relatively competitive marketplace now. AMD has product advantage and that's why the market share has crept up to about 17.5% from a low of about 12% little over a year back. And, I predict the trend will not reverse until Q3 2001. Chuck

To: Road Walker who wrote (21912)	12/7/2000 10:17:09 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: I've said before on this thread, competition between the two companies is a secondary issue. Given a relatively competitive marketplace, DEMAND is the only thing that really matters. John, take a look at pricewatch: pricewatch.com Click on Processors-PC You'll see that high speed Pentium market prices are flat or rising while AMD high speed processor prices are falling. These parts have costs that range between $25 for pin grid chips and about $50 or so for a cartridge with cache. Intel can't meet demand for chips over 866MHZ while AMD can't make anything that slow - check the results the overclockers get with Durons and Athlons. All AMD needs is for 20% of the market to be willing to pay an extra $200 for a much faster computer. And the top fifth of the market is always willing to pay a little more for the best than the lower 80% of the market. Very early next year Durons will be selling at speeds up to 900MHZ and Athlons will only be 1GHZ and faster. AMD will be able to sell these chips and be able to sell them at prices much, much higher than their $30 manufacturing cost. Meanwhile, the remainder of AMD is mostly their flash business - which is a cash machine. The remainder of Intel's business is cash drain of 3/4 $Billion per year. Intel loses money at a rate over $1 Billion per quarter if they let their ASPs get close to $100. AMD makes record profits if their ASPs remain at $90. AMD's average chip from its production lines performs better than Intel's average chip does. Intel can't meet AMD's prices or it will be heading for insolvency. Intel will just have to watch AMD mint money for much of the next year, and even if Intel decides to give away 866MHZ P3's for free, and go bankrupt doing it, AMD will still be a profitable company selling its high volume of GHZ+ CPUs for $100 or more. Regards, Dan

To: Road Walker who wrote (21912)	12/7/2000 11:57:02 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 275872

John, I agree completely on the DEMAND issue. If there are no customers to buy, despite how wunnerfull your product is any company goes bust. The good news for AMD is that its profits are balanced between FLASH and CPU's. While at Intel CPU's are 110% of profits with misc other crap bringing lossess. And news from Intel was that FLASH demand was still good. This was in fact good news for AMD. Buts its a small glimer of good news. Despite all the gloom and doom, AMD and Intel are still much better positioned than a whole host of other companies. Sure wouldn't want to be in a commodity player like memory or CAP equipment. regards, Kash