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To: 2maclean who wrote (121247)	12/7/2000 9:12:24 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 186894

"My GUESS is that this downturn will be brief- maybe over by early next year- but not a lot of fun. A lot will depend on how bad end-demand really is." Look for the interest rate cut in december. Greenspan is not blind to this downturn and if he perceives a move toward recession 1/4 point lowering will have great symbolic value for the market. Consumers always come thru for christmas. Retail pricing may collapse and that would offset any perceived inflation from rate cuts.

To: 2maclean who wrote (121247)	12/7/2000 9:33:57 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Stuart, Wecome to the thread. Thanks for contributing. You could have picked a better day to come out. John

To: 2maclean who wrote (121247)	12/7/2000 11:13:09 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

The run-up in lead times late last year and earlier this worried me. OTOH, I had felt the overshoot would last longer. My GUESS is that this downturn will be brief- maybe over by early next year- but not a lot of fun. A lot will depend on how bad end-demand really is. Stuart, Yes, I think it will not be a long down turn. Check out this link that Gottfried posted earlier...its gives a good idea how long were the last two downturns in the 90's. Message 14872591 As far as the semis not being monolithic, I agree but many of them are consumer oriented which so far causes them to still act in concert. Currently most semis are well off their highs even though they represent areas as diverse as PCs, cell phones, internet appliances, consumer products, automobiles etc. There are exceptions but its dangerous to invest in them unless the street has cut them already...as I learned painfully with TXCC. :~(( ted

To: 2maclean who wrote (121247)	12/8/2000 10:08:30 AM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 186894

Hi Stuart, RE: "Now, companies are far more specialized, and what affects INTC may or may not have bearing on TXN. That said, there are always two issues: inventories, and end-demand. In general, end-demand (broadly defined), has always grown, but at quite variable rates. In the long, flat period of 1989-1991, when the industry kept lead times under control, end demand slumped, and semiconductor sales flattened- but no worse than that. That was a "River Platte" recession. By contrast, in 1973-1975, and 1983-1985, when lead times spiraled out of control, and consequently semiconductor customers built inventories, demand collapsed- but then, rebounded, as customers had been buying less than they were using." ------------------------------------------- Wow, I'm impressed with your information. Thank you for sharing it. Welcome to the INTC thread. RE: "My GUESS is that this downturn will be brief- maybe over by early next year- but not a lot of fun." That's what I'm hearing from most entrepreneurs. But let's hope this doesn't spiral. RE: "A lot will depend on how bad end-demand really is." And that's the real question. If there's a serious end-demand issue, or if AG went way too far so that it spirals, then this could take longer than 6 month. I think AG did a good job with raising interest rates for the most part. I work at a startup, so we see first-hand the impacts of the business economy, or I hear from other entrepreneurs what they are experiencing. Things were beginning to heat up way, way too fast. Industry salaries, office leases, and costs, were increasing at an almost alarming rates. I heard that doctors were no longer able to afford to live in Silicon Valley. Our startup signed an office lease for 3.25 and only a few months later this lease was 4.50. Our lease is now an asset. Go figure. Blindless speed became more important than smart cash on the right things - everyone in the industry was throwing money away for any startup to burn. AG stepped in at a perfect time. Some of the dotcoms were taking too much money away from good businesses (biotech startups were on freeze during the dotcom boom). Finally, biotech is getting funded. So, I think AG did a good job by correcting some of these aberrations. However, at this point, it appears AG may have gone a tad too far because it's now impacting "strong" businesses and strong sectors. Last Friday's WSJ, the RHS column, front page, Dec 1, articulated this pretty well. It echoes with what I'm hearing down here. These days most entrepreneurs don't seem too interested in raising serious capital - most folks feel it's better to wait. I would doubt AG had this in mind, because this may, in turn, create a spiraling slow-down that's essentially artificial? It's interesting to observe this. At this point, my vote would be for AG to lower interest rates a tad. Thanks again for a very interesting post. Regards, Amy J