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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (5161)	12/7/2000 10:46:46 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 6710

Be honest, Ray, if you can. Sorry I have to phrase it like that, but I must. Re: Miami-Dade. How can you extrapolate from majority black precincts that voted 90/10 for Gore, or more, and ignore the fact that the Hispanic precincts broke the other way? You have to assume that all of Miami-Dade voted 90-10 for Gore and that's simply not true. Waiting for an honest answer, but I don't expect it anymore.

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (5161)	12/8/2000 11:18:11 AM
From: Valley Girl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

The problem is the 6 votes came from a sampling of the precincts Gore won by 90%. I'm no statistician, but it seems to me a better calculation would be to compute the expected number of no-vote ballots that are actually uncounted votes, then extrapolate from that using the county-wide breakdown which I believe was about 65% Gore. By this logic there were a total of 100 X 6/(90% - 10%) or 750 uncounted votes in M-D, of which Mr. Gore might expect to gain 750 X (65% - 35%) or 225 votes over Mr. Bush. I'm not disagreeing that this plus the fairly-counted PB ballots is close to putting Gore over the top, but if you then undertake to count undervotes in the rest of the state I really doubt Gore would pull ahead. Gore's only real hope is to count the dimples and avoid a state-wide count. The above calculation was based on the original 1% sample, which as I understand it obtained the 6 vote difference using relatively conservative rules. Gore obviously expects to pick up a lot more than 225 votes under loosened criteria.