Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (42930)	12/7/2000 11:21:17 PM
From: KevinThompson	Respond to of 57584

NVDA: I haven't followed the stock. But I will say that they do have a very highly regarded brand name for both the end user and oems. The following opinions are completely off the cuff, with only a gut reaction and no research; meaning I could be totally missing something. I would be very cautious about any stocks of companies that represent commodity type product lines so closely tied to the PC industry. Especially where competition is so fierce (video graphics, chipsets). I think their overall stock performance has held up due to their outstanding fundamentals. Their fundamentals remain healthy due to their good customer relations with the oems (DELL for example). But I would have a tough time being an investor. I just don't see this industry expanding with performance for the investor like some of other techs might. The PE (38?) is still too high for me to make it a compelling investment in this sector. Will we see the market look favorably on DELL, AAPL, GTW, etc. anytime soon? There's just too many other more attractive areas for my capital. I was impressed by the list you gave the other day of semi's that were less exposed to the PC industry directly. I like your call on TXN and ADI. They are heavyweights in the DSP arena. Lots of diverse products require DSP and microcontroller hardware. I still like the semi-equipment manf's. I know they are beaten up now, but I think this is a good time to be buying. Their outlook is more hopeful than most, IMO. AMAT will be around for a long long time. Another company I like along those lines, but somewhat tangent, is TWAV. Develops and manufactures process control metrology systems for semi producers. They are a recent IPO (Feb 00), but have a good history of earnings. PE is currently around 14. How about a PEG of around 0.5 !, way off their highs and starting to turn off the bottom. Best Wishes, KT

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (42930)	12/7/2000 11:53:10 PM
From: Baton	Respond to of 57584

DO: NVDA is a great trader, but the momo on that stock was all over its selection as the graphic chip for MSFT's "X Box". Unfortunately, the X Box release is still 3-4 quarters away - a lifetime in todays market. I like it's future, but for all we know we could be calling it cheap at $25. FWIW, I will try to buy it again at the $38 level for a swing trade, but not hold it LT unless the market improves its attitude. Lately, I'm only comfortable holding the baskets LT, less chance of a gut wrenching land mine. Baton

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (42930)	12/8/2000 9:26:35 AM
From: KevinThompson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

DO, here's an example of what I saying about semi-equipment manf's. 07:46 ET Novellus (NVLS) 29 3/16: Semiconductor equipment maker's shares could rebound to $78 in a year, believes money manager Graham Tanaka, quoted in the latest edition of Business Week. The Tanaka Growth Fund manager expects orders to pick up by mid-2001, driving EPS growth and the stock price to $97 within two yrs. Certainly, this just another analyst's opinion, but I don't think they are totally off base. KT