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To: isopatch who wrote (81045)	12/8/2000 11:06:01 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

isopatch, Some good news and some bad news from chartland. But first, how about introducing me to your MVK buddy, ggg! OK, first the bad news. As you will see from the following chart (I will make it my default chart for a month or so in order that all can view) the OSX is at a critical juncture. As I mentioned before, a run to 120-125 is possible as is a run to low 90's or even 80. Currently the lean is towards a drop to low 90's. The 77-82 range bottom I no longer put much faith in, it requires a "crash" type situation, which like Sitting Bull, I think is less likely now. bigcharts.com Now the good news. As you can see this is a huge Inverse H&S spanning nearly four years and virtually text book perfect in its form. While some do not like these formations, inverse or not, they seem to work effectively over long time frames and with indexes such as the OSX. The chart indicates a good possibility of a multi year rally for the OSX and also gives us a metric to measure that possibility as it unfolds. A drop to 90-96 (92 best) seems to be indicated and then a rally. FA wise this would seem to jive with continued profit taking offsetting tax loss selling and perhaps would forecast market weakness over the next several weeks to a month or so. OTOH, a "Bush" rally could run it up to 120-125 without negating the chart, with a subsequent pullback or consolidation, would also work for the chart but not nearly as nice a chart formation. The metrics are, more than a week or two closing below 90 and the chart goes in the dustbin (and the market is probably toast) the Inverse H&S is negated. If it runs up above 125, then the formation is greatly weakened and a very bullish long term outcome becomes more doubtful. I didn't measure targets on the OSX chart above yet, I'm just trying to beat SecurityTrader to it (hopefully, I haven't checked their site for a few days), VBG, but needless to say if it works out it takes the OSX to unthought of levels. I'm not going to spoil the pot before it boils by making a measure here, you folks have rulers don't ya? FA wise the chart could relate to a very prosperous world over the next few years that becomes very energy hungry. An even longer term view (10yrs?) would suggest an equally large OSX drop in that future, perhaps driven by alternative energy sources or a lengthy recession/depression. This is taking the OSX out of cyclical and putting it into a Super Cycle. But that almost amounts to Science Fiction, we're talking Extreme Charting here, VBG! The XOI Inverse H&S is still chugging along, its not as big and I haven't done the measures on it lately, but will try to do so sometime. Sometimes, though I am a short term trader (trying to reform), I find the long term view very beguiling. Hence my holding of TESOF! Best Regards, Roebear