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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BigBull who wrote (81050)12/8/2000 11:09:29 AM
From: Think4Yourself  Respond to of 95453
 
What that article is telling me is that demand will increase as the price of NG moves back down, indicating this is not a speculative bubble in the sense that NAZ stocks were. While there is clearly speculation built into the NG prices it is also a true supply/demand story.

NG prices may well stay at current levels until spring. These folks will have to deal with it just like they had to deal with sub $2 NG awhile back. It's part of the business.

Personally I would rather be able to afford to heat my home than have an adequate supply of Twinkies :o)



To: BigBull who wrote (81050)12/8/2000 11:25:32 AM
From: excardog  Respond to of 95453
 
BigBull

I tend to agree with both you and isopatch in that the stocks are not following the gas prices which is bearish. Some companies that I follow have been laying in some pretty high priced hedges of late in order to assure cash flows in 2001 which may or may not be a positive going forward. Also the leaders (APC, APA, etc) don't look very good chart wise.

So what to do? Your's and iso's suggestion to overweight in cash is the right one IMO. So that's what I am doing and have pared some holdings. Continue to swing trade a bit, buying SDC today after 3 analyst upgrades, NR and FLC yesterday although FLC was a bit to soon.

Thanks for the advice.

Scott



To: BigBull who wrote (81050)12/8/2000 11:38:46 AM
From: diana g  Respond to of 95453
 
NG Bubble??
Hi BigBull,
you wrote <<<"...Doesn't any one think NG prices are getting a wee bit bubble-ish? ...
"...The cure for high prices is... "
>>>

I share your uneasiness, but the NG supply/demand imbalance has a way to run yet, imho. Greatly increased drilling has Not yet resulted in substantial supply increases, and as JPQ points out, there's considerable side-lined demand which will re-enter the market upon any softening in NG prices. And the long term NG story is fundamentally strong. On the other hand I think we might soon see the market perceive that opportunities are better elsewhere, and take NG E&P profits to move the money to tech or ???

I'm holding a big pile of NG E&Ps and have been pondering the question "When to sell?" daily. So far I'm inclined to think I will hold at least into mid January and possibly into Feb, depending on how supply & demand goes, and of course how the market acts.

bwdik?
regards,
diana



To: BigBull who wrote (81050)12/8/2000 1:16:47 PM
From: Telemarker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Where to find cheap gas:

Wall Street!!

Are you looking, o ye "squeezed" utility companies?



To: BigBull who wrote (81050)12/8/2000 1:47:13 PM
From: sportsman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Bull,
Fidel Gheit stated yesterday that $8 NG was equivalent to $240 bbl oil. The fundamentals for NG are very strong, but $8 gas is not here to stay. Bull, I agree $8 gas creates $3-4 gas just as $10 oil created $30 oil. The Street knows this and this is the reason the E&P's are not reflecting $8 gas. I'm holding to see how this winter plays out, a crisis is definitely a possibility.
Good luck,
Sportsman