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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Diamond Jim who wrote (11054)	12/8/2000 3:49:32 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 42834

It's interesting to note that the date of those posts was close to being the exact wrong time to stop following Brinker's advice. Those who stayed fully invested, as he recommended, were richly rewarded. Let's be clear here that the discussion of Brinker as a personality, while fascinating, is completely beside the point for any investor whose goal is to maximize returns and minimize losses. The only real issue for such persons should be the evaluation of various investment strategies. There are several elements to that discussion. Can market timing deliver results superior to buy-and-hold over the long run? In order to do so, is it necessary to get every bottom and every top right? And then of course, there are the separate questions of whether this particular model is useful, and whether Brinker's recommended strategy is necessarily the best way to make use of his model's forecasts. The claim which Truman made, that there was an opportunity cost in riding out the near-bear of 1998, presumes that there was a better strategy waiting in the wings. So far, the only alternative strategy which I have heard articulated is buy-and-hold, which would certainly have had the same result in 1998. If someone has a better strategy than either of these, I'm all ears.