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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (121404)	12/9/2000 9:31:59 AM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John: But if this is a post Y2K slowdown, why the strong Q1 and Q2? LOL!! Good point! Purchasing "momentum?" Nothing ever stops on a dime. Anyway, when you look up and down the supply chain which runs from INTC to you, all one sees is inventories building, purchasing softening, etc., etc., and this has been going on for some time. Therefore....... Also, I didn't get a chance to listen to INTC's call, but I do read SI commentator Fleckstein. I'll admit the guy's hysterical, and oft-times over the top when it comes to being a bear, but I've also got to admit he called this one some months back. Indeed, he was early but remarkable prescient in calling the whole series of events. Which makes his following comment all the more interesting... When Intel gave its guidance at the last conference call, it said it was going to be 8 percent, plus or minus. I said at the time it would be lucky to be flat. Last night in its preannouncement, Intel more or less pulled a Gateway (GTW) and said it didn't want to give any guidance on ASPs or units, or where revenues might be, or where its investment portfolio was, or what the earnings per share might look like or anything else. Intel said it preannounced because it knew its revenues and investment gains were not going to meet projections. So it appears that folks want to buy the stock of a company that has been misleading folks for the last couple of years about the state of its business, and which claims not to know the state of its investment portfolio. A modicum of effort would show that Intel's trailing earnings (ex the wampum) are about $1.10, and next year they are going to be lower still. So we're going to pay 30 times declining revenues for a company in a business facing saturation and whose management either doesn't understand its own business or chooses not to shoot straight. That makes it the poster boy for today's speculation... As I said, he gets hysterical at times. Even so, when a company begins to pull back from providing basic information....well....it certainly ain't signaling good times ahead, eh? Regards! John~