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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (8759)	12/8/2000 9:31:22 PM
From: SBHX	Respond to of 30051

Well Bosco, It's amazing that the FSC should time the announcement of their decision just after the mkt closes. Guess they never heard of after mkt (which I can't trade here in Canada.) Looks like I'm stuck holding a few stocks over the coming days. Just when I thought Lewis & Clark finally took everyone out of uncharted territories :), this came out of nowhere. There was something curious with the mkts --- after the lewis&clark decision, they all spiked sharply and fell back -- as if someone(s) knew that the game is not over. And then the after mkt basically wiped out a big chunk of today's gains as soon as the announcement came. But this way (counting all the counties) at least is fair(er) than just those 3. Of course, there is the question of the counting fn again, but the majority of FSC just sidestepped that question with "rules set by the florida legislature" which is basically 'voter intent' --- nebulous subjective language that could mean anything. If the Palm Beach counting fn was used, it is doubtful if the miami-dade will yield enough votes, but if broward (Gore's) fn was used --- well. I don't think things are that simple, and Bush's advantage may not be that strong. The problem of course if counting starts, the common people may not care too much about 'the constitution' or rule-of-law or deadlines. Even if Gore doesn't have the votes, he only has to get all of Fl's 25 electors disqualified which he might pull off if his supporters can put the fear of God in Fl legilature, and if the US SC can't rule until after 18th, and if counting doesn't complete by 13th(?) 12th(?). With 269 electors next to Bush's 255 and nothing from Florida, he will be president right? There is actually a way to test the 'accidental dimple' theory. If people looked at the ballots that the machines recognized, check to see if there are dimples in there as well besides the clearly punched out holes. If the dimples can be caused by loose chads as ballots are stacked up, then they can easily show up on the 'valid ballots' as well. Or better still, get a few loose chad ballots, put them on top of another ballot and put 100 or 500 ballots on top of them and see if a dimple shows up after a few hours. The remaining question of marginal gore supporters who changed their minds in the ballot booth...well... only god will ever know. SbH

To: Bosco who wrote (8759)	12/8/2000 9:50:53 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Bosco: Personally I feel the market is more afraid of Gores pollicies than Bush's lack of knowledge (I won't say ability cause he did become Governor of Texas). Gore is not Clinton (Clinton would have won re election by a landslide). Clinton lead from the middle. Gore has to lead from the liberal side. Its how he ran his campaign and how he got the support / votes. Bush would lead from the middle. I have a big concern with this scenario (the constitutional crisis we will be in) in that it makes todays action a bull trap. I now agree and disagree with Zeev. I agree without the fear and still bullish sentiment we see 2,550 (I mistakenly thought a Bush election would start a rally and would mean we come back in February time frame, not next week. Unfortunately on a break of 2,600 I see the 2,000 to 2,200 area. I'm not worried about a margin call but am worried about losing value. Right now all my stocks but two are under my stops so I'll be out of many positions on Monday (I'll see Monday am if I remeove them or not, since there may be a bounce. So unless the SC steps in we are lock limit down on Monday and that sets the tone until the FED meeting. Market sentiment just changed back to negative with this ruling. Tim