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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (559)	12/8/2000 11:29:11 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

Hi all; A useful page that shows how to convert between probabilities and odds is here: library.thinkquest.org The point that ahhaha is missing is that odds are not converted into probabilities by simple fractions, but instead, the two numbers have to be added for the denominator. He is correct that independent events, each with probability 1/26 (for the alphabet for instance), will cause the denominator of the calculated probability to be divisible by the primes that divide 26, and no larger primes, but he takes this simple germ of truth and misuses it when he says that odds of 1 to 263 are not possible because of the primality of 263. Here's an example calculation showing how (large) prime odds can result from calculations using dice. Dice have no prime divisor greater than 3, so they are a good example... Consider the game where a player throws four dice. In order to win, the first die must come up either 1 or 2. The other three dice must all come up 1. To win this game, he will have to be very lucky. What are the odds against him? There are a total of 6^4 = 1296 possible dice throws. Of these, two of them result in wins: {2,1,1,1} and {1,1,1,1}. The others 1294 result in losses. Clearly, the odds against the player are 1294 to 2, or 647 to 1. Funny thing, 647 is prime... -- Carl