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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (11556)	12/10/2000 12:03:18 PM
From: jhelmers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78602

Paul, I tripled down on Friday. My best guess is that the odds of bankruptcy are quite low (10-20%). From what I have been able to learn about their asbestos risk, they are in a much more favorable position than Armstrong or even USG which Buffet bought (lower payout per claiment and fewer claims). They currently have the cash flow to cover their debt payments and even their dividend of 27%(though I think the stock would pop nicely if they cut the dividend). Hopefully the delisting is giving us an artificially low entry price. There was a market on close sell order Friday of over 4mm shares (average daily volume is less than 1mm). Lastly, their underlying business has been hurt by the extremely low Euro (60% of sales)and extremely high oil price (a major input) both of which I think are due to correct. Any way, I have placed my bet. john P.S. One insider buyer is John Neff, the esteemed value investor formerly of Wellington.