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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37748)	12/9/2000 12:26:02 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

DEC 9 INDEX UPDATE ------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - upper midrange SPX - borderline CLASS 2 SELL signal OEX - borderline CLASS 2 SELL signal NAZ - CLASs 2 SELL signal NDX - CLASS 2 SELL signal VIX - 26.13, CLASS 2 BUY signal(inverse to market) PUT:CALL - .59 With the 4:00pm FRIDAY announcement from the FLORIDA SUPREME COURT, the futures dropped dramatically. If that remains unchanged, such would imply a down opening on MONDAY. Regardless, my short-term technicals were approaching the CLASS SELL territory on FRI. There were positive developments in the NAZ/NDX, mainly concerning the SOX and BTK. The BTK broke above the BEARISH PENNANT which is very bullish, and the SOX created a MINOR(local) HIGHER HIGH. Also the NAZ MARKET INTERNALS(NEW LOWs) have improved. As negative as it appears from the Florida Supreme Court announcement, the NAZ did have some positives for the short-term. These positive developments in the NAZ/NDX is giving me hints that if there is a retest, which is statistically probable, the retest should be successful and could form some sort of DOUBLE BOTTOM, whether the second leg is slightly lower or higher than the 1 leg down. Again, Im only speaking for the shorter/mid-term, not long-term. Statistically, the probability is high for some sort of a retest on declines of >7%. As for the longer-term view on the NAZ/NDX, I did not like the manner where a few stocks were so hot last week. That gives me the impression that the momentum type trading is still not totally washed out/capitulated. That doesnt mean that Im positive that the NAZ/NDX will create LOWER LOWS later, just that its still a sign of over-bullishness and we should not ignore the possibility that the NAZ/NDX could go even lower down the road. So Im less bearish/bullish for the short/mid-term(subject to a possible retest), but for the longer term Im still bearish and still questioning whether the NAZ/NDX can go lower. Overall, I am more bearish on the DOW and the SPX than the NAZ/NDX now. The BKX(BANKS) and DRG(DRUGS) are really not far from all time highs, and recently many DOW/NYSE stocks have rallied signidicantly. Basicly I consider the recent rallies in the DOW as another example of EXTREME SECTOR ROTATION/FLIGHT to SAFETY, where money has been flowing from NAZ to the DOW. As I have mentioned often, I strongly feel that EXTREME SECTOR ROTATION will be eventually corrected to the downside, where others feel bullish in that it is forming a base for the next leg up. The TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, and the trend for the almost 2 years concerning EXTREME SECTOR ROTATION is that eventully some sort a correction follows. Also for the longer-term view, I really believe that the US DOLLAR may be the main key for direction in the market. If the US DOLLAR continues to drop - thats just not good for stocks. As mentioned previously I have the main trendline from 1997 around 112, and a drop below 112 is a significant negative since it implies a break in trend. Last week the DOLLAR got slightly below 113 and bounced. Lets see how far this bounce takes it - if its a weak bounce, thats not a good sign. tfc-charts.w2d.com In both the WEBSITE and my personal account, we closed the majority of our long positions on FRIDAY where we are now basicly evenly hedged and 87% cash. I will still not be available unil around Tue/WED. thanks for all the well wishes

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37748)	12/10/2000 3:10:19 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

Hopefully you'll be pleasantly surprised by President Bush, I prefer moral and honorable over smart. If you are President, you can hire all the smart folks you need. But who will give you good judgement if you are a miscreant? Intelligence and wisdom are often far removed from one another. In my view, revelations to come about the shennanigans of Gore and Clinton in the last 8 years are the reason they have fought this election result tooth and nail. They are finished if a Republican wins and they know it! No need to reply to this one Haim, I prefer we wait for the judgement of history. I've saved these posts to disk for that day.... Best regards, Roebear