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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Madden who wrote (8925)	12/9/2000 4:53:46 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark, <<With PC growth slowing it hard to imagine new markets being strong enough to pick up the slack yet. Perhaps it is a combination of new markets, higher retail sales and HDD’s curtailed production that is keeping the supply/demand ratio balanced. Could it be component makers that have the control to limit oversupply? The sample pricing continues hold better than the last December quarter that averaged 1.7% decline at this point and ended at 1.6%(monthly rate).>> There is some balancing I guess but only for those in the right segments. The PC slow down is bound to affect Maxtor,Western Digital and Samsung the most because it is primarily associated with vanished seasonal spending on consumer desktops and those are really the only drives they make. However, corporate and laptops remain strong. Breakdown of share in the three primary markets so far this year (Q1 - Q3) is as follows: Desktop Maxtor - 17.9% WDC - 14% Fujitsu - 11.3% IBM - 4.7% Samsung - 6.4% Seagate - 23.1% Quantum - 21.9% Enterprise: Maxtor - N/A WDC - 1.3% Fujitsu - 16.3% IBM - 23.8% Samsung - N/A Seagate - 45.1% Quantum - 12.7% Mobile Hitachi - 15.9% Fujitsu - 19.0% IBM - 38.8% Samsung - N/A Seagate - N/A Toshiba - 26.1% Others - .2% Something to keep in mind. This year (Q1-Q3) marks the first in three years to have revenue growth in the PC market. Evidence that PC spending is shifting away from the lowest cost i-net surfing systems to the mobile, server, and higher end personal work station segments. This means that, you guessed it, that segment slow down is affecting Gateway, Apple, H-P, and Micron, the most. Acer,Dell, and Compaq may each get a market share boost by their relative strong positions in Asia where PC sales are growing at a 34% clip rate compared to last year. Best, Stitch