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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cal Gary who wrote (6111)	12/9/2000 4:25:37 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14101

CalGary, To be honest, when it came to Elliot Wave Theory, even though I read through it all, I came away with nothing. My eyes simply glazed over and my brain turned off. So I'm glad to be hearing you and Jeff discussing it so that we can all benefit a little from yet another type of analysis. I want all input to help me protect my investment. To all, There is certainly a clear signal that some groups out there believe we are close to taking the next step. Unbelievable as it sounds, once we have a partner in the UK, nothing is stopping us from making the first revenue shipment except contract terms and logistics. That first truck or container car will be pulled up to our plant in Varennes, it will be loaded up with Pennsaid and shipped overseas with an invoice. After that, I suppose we'd better make some more. There's no doubt that shipment will be made prior to our February quarter end so it can be included in the results. By then, we'll need to be serious in concluding a deal with the rest of europe or at least the next 5 countries. Since vetoing a safe arthritis cream in not in the cards - DMX will be negotiating with the same strong hand - approval. Then we will need to make similar shipments to that (those) partner(s) as we start making further shipments to our UK partner say by April latest. Smaller shipments at first. I'm both a high risk investor and conservative. So I won't flinch from putting a lot of money in a speculative, if I can match low expectation, good probability, and adequate return in a company where the key issues can be clearly understood. So I'm not counting on Pennsaid being a blockbuster. I'm counting on efficacy, first hand feedback, low cost alternative, and social/insurance desire to save big costs to keep our market growing throughout in the 20+% range based on a 10+% overall growth and a 10+% increasing success rate for Pennsaid. I had said early in the year that I thought DMX would be $50 by mid 2001. But my investment targets weren't anywhere near that - so when we basically lost a year against expectation, it wasn't that hard to just give it up. I also promised myself last July I wouldn't post predictions about the future until after we achieved a major milestone and I believe I kept that promise to myself. I expected $25 by end December but my portfolio target was $13.25. Now I've got that down to $12.59 to achieve the same goal and it's actually possible (see? aggressive SOB but with objectives that have setbacks built in) I expect DMX to be in the mid $30's by Dec 31/01, but my portfolio target is $21. I would expect an FDA initial approval at least some time in 2001 and I agree with some postings I've seen it will add over $10 per share which will never go away. (Mid 30's to me is already conservative and a $21 target has built in room for setbacks but gives a 67% return for the year [good probability - adequate return - lowered expectation]). What's changed for 2002 (which had been 2001) is that WF10 will be in it, and europe will already be mature by the time the US comes on stream (see? low expectation). So I now expect DMX to surpass $100 a share by Dec 31/2002. (This will be the year with a 200+% return target). Why? I've done detailed revenue/EPS projections that everyone says are too conservative but easily surpass $100 end 2002. Luckily I get to watch the year before setting a target for 2002 and an overall investment strategy based on 2001 performance. I'm not saying all this to talk about me. I'm already comfortable with what I'm doing. I'm saying this because I believe many investors need to get more disciplined about setting goals, measuring, and deciding before the events what they'll do when such and such occurs and why. Its amazing how that minimizes hand wringing when the stock goes down for perfectly sound reasons. As I posted, the values were solid even if the performance wasn't and was jacked 50% by the shareholder rights plan. Buying below $6 was a free lunch with minimal risk. Feel the emotions. But make the brain decide. I do that out loud. It creates stronger committment when you hear your voice saying it. Are you selling? When? Why? How? (have you already put the sell in?) What do you expect from this investment? When? Why? What will you do if performance deviates too much from your expectations? When? Specifically what will trigger that? If you're longer term is that date based? dollar based? average return based? When do you review? Good luck everyone, Wolf PS - Obviously I'm not speaking to people who already have developed strategies. I'm trying to help people who don't.