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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (64065)	12/9/2000 11:21:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 99985

And because of ... dailynews.yahoo.com

To: John Madarasz who wrote (64065)	12/9/2000 11:21:49 PM
From: Hector	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I'm neither at the moment, since I'm hedged with a slight bias on the short side. I believe the next couple of months should be OK with the bear market resuming in the spring of next year. Based on what I've seen over the last few days, it's obvious that the wild speculative juices in the market are alive and well. I'd be careful with the COT report. Don't be surprised if the next one doesn't show a reversal of the net short positions?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (64065)	12/10/2000 12:10:58 AM
From: Stephen	Respond to of 99985

John, Like many here, I am mostly in cash. However, from a sentiment point of view, I find that the bearish are saying the market will go down but are very tempted to buy the dip. And, as I've traded stocks ... some of which I considered playing longer term, I find that they have gotten away from me to the upside. So persoanlly I find that whilst the fundamentals for techs are weak, the evidence of a bottom of some kind is becoming more compelling. I also remember previous bottoms where I thought things were awful ... and continued trading when I would have been better just holding. Is that time now ??. I don't know .. but I feel sentiment is changing to be rather more positive. Besides ... if one is bullish only because one is wrong ..I mean long .... isn't that a contrarian indicator of some kind .. LOL. It beats me ... but there are times when it is important to preserve capital .. and times when it is prudent to take some calcualted risk. Which brings me to a conundrum. From a TA perspective, the NASD needs to break above certain resistance levels ... these vary a little bit dependant upon who one listens to. From a fundamental perspective, many of those stocks that were overvalued but suffering P/E contraction have started to run again. If the NASD gets above the resistance levels, they will have worse fundamental valuations ... so .. imho ..would be too risky to buy ! So ... its either a rock & a hardspot ... or all beer & skittles dependant upon ones outlook .... and I know I'm too bearish sometimes and forget its just a game played by a wide range of people. Given whats happened ... I doubt there will be much of a pullback Monday ... and if it happens in the a.m. ... then there's a good chance I will buy it (like lots of others)... albeit I'll be in the Disneyland hotel ... GG. Just aswell I'm on the West coast & have a dozy family ... Have a great weekend everyone ! Regards Stephen