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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (5576)	12/10/2000 12:23:13 AM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

You said: <<I don't agree with what you said. The margin of victory is smaller than margin of error. >> You are absolutely correct and that is what I said..Read my post again Jozef. <<And at the time the recount commenced this morning, the 154 vote differential represented 1/400 of 1%, so the confidence standard was TWENTY times larger than the observed differential.>> That is exactly my point...the margin of error(Confidence standard) is substantially larger than the OBSERVED vote differential...that is why this election debate is anything but an invalid argument. This is not a lame excuse for complaint. And because of that, ALL the votes must be counted. Look, if Bush had won FL by say 51-49, a manual recount would have been absurd because the margin of error was so much smaller than the vote differential. It is precisely because of the closeness that a complete recount is necessary, not in spite of the closeness.I mean if one were to have done a Monte Carlo simulation on this election, using 5.8mm votes for the two of them and a 50-50 vote split, how many of them would have come within 600 votes? Do the math, it's a small small percentage. BTW, you cannot compare this to rolling dice...rolling dice is a sampling with replacement scenario. This is without replacement, like blackjack...except the dealer is keeping some of the cards from being drawn(i.e., ballots not examined). The republicans continue to incorrectly state that the same votes are being counted over and over again. Seriously, one has to be either highly partisan or stupid to believe that the same votes, and all the votes, have been manually counted multiple times. Today, ballots that had never been hand counted were being counted...until the counting was ordered to stop. TG